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August 19, 2016

A noble and important effort to unpack and contextualize recent crime data

P025_1_00Regular readers surely know about all the original important work done at The Marshall Project, and today they earn my admiration and praise for this lengthy feature piece attempting to bring needed clarity to the latest discussions and debates over crimes rates.  The piece, which is headlined "Crime in Context: Violent crime is up in some places, but is it really a trend?," really demands a full-read (in part because it has a lot of charts and images); the start of the piece provides a flavor of the analysis:

Is crime in America rising or falling? The answer is not nearly as simple as politicians sometimes make it out to be, because of how the FBI collects and handles crime data from the country’s more than 18,000 police agencies. Those local reports are voluntary and sometimes inconsistent.  And the bureau takes months or years to crunch the numbers, so the national data lags behind the current state of crime.

To present a fuller picture of crime in America, The Marshall Project collected and analyzed 40 years of FBI data — through 2014 — on the most serious violent crimes in 68 police jurisdictions. We also obtained data directly from 61 local agencies for 2015 — a period for which the FBI has not yet released its numbers.  (Our analysis found that violent crime in these jurisdictions rose 4 percent last year. But crime experts caution against making too much of year-over-year statistics.)

In the process, we were struck by the wide variation from community to community.  To paraphrase an aphorism about politics, all crime is local.  Each city has its own trends that depend on the characteristics of the city itself, the time frame, and the type of crime.  In fact, the trends vary from neighborhood to neighborhood within cities; a recent study posited that 5 percent of city blocks account for 50 percent of the crime.  That is why most Americans believe crime is worse, while significantly fewer believe it is worse where they live.

We’re making the data we collected available to download, for anyone who might be interested in examining the historic trends.

And here is some more of the crime accounting in this piece:

Are we in the throes of a crime wave sweeping across the nation, or is this a period of stability and safety unlike any we’ve seen in a generation?

The Marshall Project used a widely accepted statistical calculation to get a weighted average of recent years -- essentially smoothing out the year-to-year fluctuations that are common to crime data.  We found that the reported violent crimes rose in our cities last year to its highest point since 2010.  But viewed in the broader context of the past five decades, crime remains near record lows.  Note that we focused on cities, where crime is most prevalent, excluding more affluent suburbs or the sparsely developed rural areas that make up the rest of the country.

President Obama is correct when he says violent crime is near an all-time low. Since 2008, the national rate of violent crime has been lower than at any point since 1976. Although recent data, such as a report compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association a professional organization of the leaders of the country’s largest police departments, show crime in several major cities has risen in the past year, the uptick is still dramatically lower than the highs reached in the early 1990s.  That is not expected to change once the FBI releases national numbers for 2015.

Donald Trump’s assertion that the nation has become more dangerous than he (or anybody) has ever seen is clearly inaccurate.  Since Obama was sworn into office, violent crime in the major cities and across the nation has dropped, albeit not as dramatically as in recent history.  New studies such as one published this summer by the National Institute of Justice show homicides rose in dozens of cities last year, though much of that increase was concentrated in just 10: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Washington, D.C., Nashville, Tenn., Philadelphia, Kansas City, Mo., and St. Louis.

August 19, 2016 at 09:12 AM | Permalink

Comments

St. Louis is on the uptick because of the Al Sharpton effect. He brought his gang in from Harlem and from around the country to burn Ferguson and Dellwood.

Posted by: Liberty 1st | Aug 19, 2016 2:39:12 PM

I don't blame Al Sharpton. I blame those store owners for opening stores on West Florissant on the edge of Ferguson.

Posted by: BurnBabyBurn | Aug 19, 2016 2:41:52 PM

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