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October 20, 2016

BJS reports encouraging crime reductions based on its National Crime Victimization Survey

Some more interesting and important (and perhaps confusing) official crime data was reported earlier today via this notable new report from DOJ's Bureau of Justice Statistics excitingly titled "Criminal Victimization, 2015."  Though the title of the report is not so thrilling, the data contained therein is largely a cause for celebration.  This first page of overview/highlights explains why (with my emphasis added):

In 2015, U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced an estimated 5.0 million violent victimizations, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). There was no statistically significant change in the rate of overall violent crime, defined as rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault, from 2014 (20.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 and older) to 2015 (18.6 per 1,000) (figure 1).  However, the rate of violent crime in 2015 was lower than in 2013 (23.2 per 1,000). From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

The rates of violent and property crime largely followed similar trends over time. Households in the U.S. experienced an estimated 14.6 million property victimizations in 2015. The overall property crime rate (which includes household burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft) decreased from 118.1 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2014 to 110.7 victimizations per 1,000 in 2015. A decline in theft accounted for most of the decrease in property crime.

„No statistically significant change occurred in the rate of violent crime from 2014 (20.1 victimizations per 1,000) to 2015 (18.6 per 1,000). „

No statistically significant change was detected in the percentage of violent crime reported to police from 2014 (46%) to 2015 (47%). „

No measureable change was detected in the percentage of violent crime victimizations in which victim services were received from 2014 (10.5%) to 2015 (9.1%).

The rate of property crime decreased from 118.1 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2014 to 110.7 per 1,000 in 2015.

In 2015, 0.98% of all persons age 12 or older (2.7 million persons) experienced at least one violent victimization. „

The prevalence rate of violent victimization declined from 1.11% of all persons age 12 or older in 2014 to 0.98% in 2015. „

In 2015, 7.60% of all households (10 million households) experienced one or more property victimizations. „

The prevalence rate of property victimization declined from 7.99% of all households in 2014 to 7.60% in 2015.

In other words, in 2015 according to this distinctive victim-based accounting of crime in the United States (which, critically, excludes any homicide measures), crime remained steady at modern record-low levels or even declined a bit across most types of crime.

October 20, 2016 at 03:48 PM | Permalink

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