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June 22, 2017

Are federal judges already getting a little tougher at sentencing in the Trump era?

The question in the title of this post was my first thought after looking through this new federal sentencing data released by the US Sentencing Commission today.  The data that really caught my eye is on Table 12, which shows that in the most recent quarter (running from January 1 to March 31), less than 20% of federal cases involved a judge-initiated departure/variance below the guideline range (19.9% to be exact), and 2.9% of cases involved a judge-initiated departure/variance above the guideline range.  The last time that less than 20% of federal cases involved a judge-initiated departure/variance below the guideline range was in the fourth quarter of 2013, and I do not believe there has ever been a quarter in which so many cases involved an above-guideline sentence.

Because federal sentencing data moves always around a bit from quarter-to-quarter, and because case-load mixes can vary from quarter-to-quarter, these small statistical changes I have noticed here may just be a coincidental blip rather than a reflection of the impact of tough-on-crime talk from the Trump Administration and its Department of Justice.  (Nevertheless, because the federal system currently sentences over 16,000 cases per quarter, even small statistical changes represent hundreds of defendants.)  We will have to see in subsequent USSC data runs whether this new pattern of fewer below-guideline sentences and more above-guideline sentences persists.

Critically, the period covered by this USSC federal sentencing data predates the May issuance by Attorney General Jeff Sessions of new charging and sentencing guidance for federal prosecutors.   I find it notable and interesting that federal judges may have already been responding in some (small) sentencing ways to the tough-on-crime talk from the Trump Administration even before AG Sessions formally toughened up federal prosecutorial policies and practices.

June 22, 2017 at 11:32 PM | Permalink

Comments

We should be impeaching judges for their just awful decisions. They are all biased in favor of the source of their jobs, the criminals. Judges should be sent warnings by the legislatures. If they repeat their biased decisions, impeach them.

Posted by: David Behar | Jun 23, 2017 4:03:10 AM

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