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June 7, 2017

Brennan Center provides a "final" accounting of rising violent crime in 2016

The folks at the Brennan Center have this new report titled "Crime in 2016: Final Year-End Data" authored by Ames Grawert and James Cullen. This Brennan Center webpage includes a link to the report, other past reports on crime rates, and this accounting of the report's primary findings:

Chicago accounted for more than 55 percent of the murder increase last year, according to a new analysis of crime data by the Brennan Center. The overall national crime rate remained stable.

This analysis finds that Americans are safer today than they have been at almost any time in the past 25 years.

Based on new year-end data collected from police departments in the 30 largest cities, crime in 2016 remained at historic lows across the country. Although there are some troubling increases in murder in specific cities, these trends do not signal the start of a new national crime wave. What’s more startling, this analysis finds that the increase in murders is even more concentrated than initially expected. Chicago now accounts for more than 55.1 percent of the total increase in urban murders — up from an earlier projection of 43.7 percent.

Final Year-End Findings:

  • The overall crime rate in the 30 largest cities in 2016 remained largely unchanged from last year. Specifically, overall crime rose by 0.9 percent, essentially remaining stable.

  • The murder rate rose in this group of cities last year by 13.1 percent.

  • Alarmingly, Chicago accounted for 55.1 percent of the total increase in urban murders — more than preliminary data suggested.

  • A similar phenomenon occurred in 2015, when three cities — Baltimore, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. — accounted for more than half (53.5 percent) of the increase in murders.

  • Some cities are experiencing an increase in murder while other forms of crime remain relatively low. Concerns about a national crime wave are premature, but these trends suggest a need to understand how and why murder is increasing in these cities.

  • Violent crime rates rose slightly. The 4.2 percent increase was driven by Chicago (16.5 percent) and Baltimore (18.6 percent). Violent crime still remains near the bottom of the nation’s 30-year downward trend.

These crime data, however one might view or spin them, help ensure that Justice Department officials like Jeff Sessions Steve Cook have strong talking points whenever they are eager to make the case for tougher federal criminal justice policies and practices.  Moreover, they can help support a pitch for sentencing toughness that can be enduring: if crime keep going up in 2017 and beyond, then the case gets made that even great toughness is needed; if crime starts going down in 2017 or later, then the case gets made that toughness works.

June 7, 2017 at 11:21 AM | Permalink

Comments

Hey, assholes. Crime moved to the internet as everything else did. The count is not likely to be the official 15 million, but closer to 100 million. Crime productivity has markedly increased with this new technology. This is a stunningly stupid and failing report. Are people going to their police precinct and reporting identity theft? Do the majority of people even know they have been hacked? I cannot stand this intentional stupidity, because it is called, lying.

Posted by: David Behar | Jun 7, 2017 12:48:01 PM

Decarceration and the Ferguson Effect. Mass murder of hundreds if not thousands of black men. Good job feminist lawyers and their male running dogs. You have been 100 times more lethal than the KKK was in 100 years of genocidal maniac lynchings.

Posted by: David Behar | Jun 7, 2017 12:51:02 PM

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