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December 7, 2017

Latest data from National Crime Victimization Survey adds a bit of uncertainty to 2016 crime story

As explained in this press release, the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics today released estimates of crime from the 2016 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). These passages from the release provide the basic numbers and then explains  why it is difficult to use the 2016 NCVS data to compare to previous data:

In 2016, U.S. residents age 12 or older experienced 5.7 million violent victimizations, including rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated and simple assault.  This was a rate of 21.1 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons.  An estimated 1.3 percent of U.S. residents experienced one or more violent victimizations in 2016....

These estimates of crime are presented in BJS's annual report on criminal victimization, which focused primarily on the level and nature of violent and property crimes in 2016.  The ability to compare 2016 estimates of crime to 2015 or other years was limited due to a redesign of the NCVS sample.  In 2016, BJS introduced new areas to the NCVS sample to reflect population changes based on the 2010 Decennial Census and to produce state- and local-level victimization estimates, which will be released in early 2018.  Among sampled areas that did not change, there was no measurable difference in rates of violent or property crime from 2015 to 2016.

For a better understanding of what this latest data tells us and does not tell us, here are some thoughtful short commentaries emerging in the wake of this new data:

From FiveThirtyEight here, "Why We Can’t Be Sure If Violent Crime Is On The Rise"

From Vox here, "Federal report: violent crime rose in 2016. Other federal report: eh, maybe not."

From Wonkblog here, "We were told violent crime rose in 2016. That may not be true."

December 7, 2017 at 09:29 PM | Permalink

Comments

Forgot something.

15 million internet crimes, netting $5000 compared to $4000 for a bank robbery, and virtually risk free.

Posted by: David Behar | Dec 8, 2017 1:53:16 PM

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