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January 23, 2018

New FBI crime data on first half of 2017 show encouraging declines in all areas except murder and car thefts

LargeThis new news release from the FBI, headlined "2017 Preliminary Semiannual Crime Statistics Released: Stats Show Slight Crime Decline in First Half of 2017," reveals some generally positive crime news for the start of 2017. Here are the basics:

Preliminary statistics show declines in the number of both violent crimes and property crimes reported for the first half of 2017 when compared with the first half of 2016, according to the FBI’s Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report, January - June 2017, released today. The report includes data from more than 13,000 law enforcement agencies nationwide that submitted crime data to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program.

According to the report, overall violent crime decreased 0.8 percent in the first six months of 2017 compared with the same time frame in 2016, though the number of murders and non-negligent manslaughters reported increased by 1.5 percent.  Additionally, the number of rapes (revised definition) decreased 2.4 percent, robberies decreased 2.2 percent, and aggravated assaults were down 0.1 percent.

Overall reported property crime offenses dropped 2.9 percent in the first half of 2017 compared with the first half of 2016. Burglaries decreased 6.1 percent, and larceny-thefts decreased 3 percent.  One area of property crime that did rise was motor vehicle thefts, with a 4.1 percent increase.

This FBI table providing year-to-year trends of the last four years provides a little more context for this latest data.  It is especially encouraging to see violent crime start to tick down after two years of increases, but the continued increase in murders remains disconcerting coming on the heels of two prior years of increases.  As has been the case in recent years, I suspect the homicide story is a dynamic region-specific tale with divergent numbers and stories in different cities.  Indeed, this FBI chart with population breakdowns and this FBI chart with regional breakdowns seem to indicate that mid/large-sized cities in the Midwest and South account for much of the increases in murders in the first part of 2017.

UPDATE: Attorney General Jeff Sessions already has penned this commentary published by USA Today touting the good news in this new FBI crime data. Here are parts of the piece:

When President Trump was inaugurated, he made the American people a promise: “This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.” It is a promise that he has kept....

Trump ran for office on a message of law and order, and he won. When he took office, he ordered the Department of Justice to stop and reverse these trends — and that is what we have been doing every day for the past year.

We have placed trust in our prosecutors again, and we’re restoring respect for law enforcement. We have invested in new resources and put in place smarter policies based on sound research.

Ensuring every neighborhood in America is safe again will take time, but we are already starting to see results.

In 2017, we brought cases against more violent criminals than in any year in decades.  We charged the most federal firearm prosecutions in a decade. We convicted nearly 500 human traffickers and 1,200 gang members, and helped our international allies arrest about 4,000 MS-13 members.  We also arrested and charged hundreds of people suspected with contributing to the ongoing opioid crisis.

Morale is up among our law enforcement community.  Any loss of life is one too many, but it is encouraging that the number of officers killed in the line of duty declined for the first time since 2013, reaching its second lowest level in more than half a century.  And we are empowering and supporting our critically important state, local and tribal law enforcement partners as we work together to protect communities from crime.

In the first six months of last year, the increase in the murder rate slowed and violent crime actually went down.  Publicly available data for the rest of the year suggest further progress. For the first time in the past few years, the American people can have hope for a safer future.

Our strategy at this department of concentrating on the most violent criminals, taking down violent gang networks, prioritizing gun prosecutions, and supporting our state, local and tribal law enforcement partners has proven to work.  Of course, our work is not done. Crime is still far too high — especially in the most vulnerable neighborhoods.

This first year of the Trump era shows once again that the difficult work we do alongside our state, local and tribal law enforcement partners makes a difference. Crime rates are not like the tides — we can help change them.  And under Trump’s strong leadership, we will.

I fear that AG Sessions may be taking a victory lap a bit too early based on just a small bit of data from the first half of 2017.  But this commentary references positive "data for the rest of the year," and that lead me to think he has a reasonable basis to expect subsequent crime data reports for 2018 to also be positive.  Given that crime rates are already pretty low by historical standards, I rather like that AG Sessions is already prepared to "take ownership" of crime data.  Consequently, if crime continues to trend down, he certainly can and will be in a position to take credit.  And if crime does not continue to trend down, he will have some explaining to do. 

January 23, 2018 at 06:17 PM | Permalink

Comments

Sessions has probably helped rein in Chicago's murder rate.

And getting 4,000 MS-13 gangbangers off the streets is huge. And human traffickers---more scum of the earth finding a home in prison.

Sessions is awesome!!

Posted by: federalist | Jan 23, 2018 11:14:50 PM

Crime has not dropped, of course. Democratic politicians are forcing the police to throw out reports, or get fired. Crime has modernized to the internet. There were 15 million internet crimes. The average identity theft nets $5000, with literally no risk. The average bank robbery nets $4000, with the risk of getting shot, attacked, imprisoned. There is also the Ferguson Effect. It applies to all crime, not just murder. Thus an increase in murder is a reliable indictor in the increase in all crime. It is just tougher to throw out the report on a dead, shot up body for the politician to force the police to do.

Prof. Berman should stop claiming crime has decreased. It has not. He my be fairly said to be a Democratic Party talking points propagandist. The lower crime rate is lawyer propaganda, fake news. This recurrent fake news in this blog detracts from Prof. Berman's credibility. The drop in crime is a ridiculous, flat earth, Truther class denial.

Posted by: David Behar | Jan 24, 2018 7:52:21 AM

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