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June 13, 2018

Notable new analysis of US incarceration levels and recent (modest) changes

Ted Gest over at The Crime Report has this details summary of an even more detailed analysis of US incarceration levels and their changes in recent years. The summary is headlined "Incarceration Decrease? Drop in Prison Numbers Called ‘Anemic’," and here are excerpts:

Although the US prison population has declined over six years, after increasing for nearly four decades, a new analysis by researcher Malcolm C. Young, published by the Center for Community Alternatives, concludes that the nation is not reducing prison populations at a pace that would end mass incarceration in the foreseeable future.

A report issued in January by the Bureau of Justice Statistics of data through 2016 found that prison populations decreased in 33 states that year — more states than had experienced decreases in any recent year. The average decrease was three percent. In 42 states, prison populations were lower than they had been recently.  Just eight states increased their prison populations to record high numbers.

The downturn it documented, while perhaps marking the beginning of an end to three-and-a-half decades of increases, “is anemic to the point of listlessness,” says Young, a longtime advocate of cutting prison populations. If the numbers of inmates continue to decrease only at the rate they did between 2014 and2016, there will still be more than a million people incarcerated in prison in 2042. The nation wouldn’t reach the goal of groups like #Cut50.org to reduce prison populations to half of what they are today for another 50 years, until 2068.

Moreover, the current rate of decrease may not hold, according to Young. The prospects for a more rapid de-incarceration are poor unless and until many more states use strategies that have been effective in the handful of states that are significantly reducing prison numbers, Young believes....

Young found that prospects that most of the 13 states responsible for much of the national decrease will continue to reduce their prison populations are good. For example, Massachusetts has the second-lowest incarceration rate in the nation (after Maine), and the Vera Institute of Justice predicts further decreases. New Jersey will likely continue to reduce its prison population as a result of pretrial reforms signed by Gov. Chris Christie that took effect last year. In New York State, further decreases are likely if officials can encourage fewer prison commitments from areas outside of New York City.

On the other hand, California, which decreased its prison population by 40,926 in six years to comply with a US Supreme Court ruling, increased its prison population in 2016 by 0.9 percent. California corrections officials predict an annual 0.8 percent increase in coming years. In Illinois, Gov. Bruce Rauner cut the prison population, incurring little opposition from the same Republicans who savaged his Democratic predecessor’s more modest efforts. Were he to lose his bid for reelection, it is not a given that a Democratic administration would carry his plan forward.

Since 2010, Texas decreased its prison population by 6,749 (4.1 percent). Prospects that the trend will continue are iffy because state legislators have been considering new sentencing enhancements.

Young found that decreases in the 14 states that have demonstrated a capacity to reduce prison populations have been “episodic.” Recently enacted reforms have encountered opposition. In Louisiana, advocates have been concerned that legislators will roll back recently enacted reforms designed to reduce incarceration. In Utah, reforms that relied on treatment and housing programs are at risk because of a lack of funding for alternative programs. In Florida, legislative reforms have not led to the reductions in prison populations for which advocates hoped....

Young calls for reexamining the effectiveness of prison-reduction strategies. “[Hopes to] to end mass incarceration can’t be grounded in a fiction that an annual one percent reduction in prisoners will get us anywhere, or that limited successes in a few jurisdictions will end mass incarceration in the country as whole.”

His report contends that national, state and local officials should turn for guidance to states that have achieved significant, lasting reductions in prison incarceration and steer clear of approaches that have failed to produce results.

Malcolm Young's full report, which is titled Prisoners in 2016 and the Prospects for an End to Mass Incarceration, is available at this link.

June 13, 2018 at 05:44 PM | Permalink

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