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September 30, 2018

Noting some worrisome trends in latest official FBI crime data

The folks at Crime & Consequences have two recent posts spotlighting some notable state-specific trends in the latest FBI crime data.  As noted in this post from last week, the FBI reported that violent crimes in the US appeared to "decrease 0.2 percent in 2017 when compared with 2016 data" and that property crimes also "dropped 3.0 percent" in 2017.  But, for fans of sentencing reforms and/or marijuana reform, these two posts at C&C suggest a different tale:

Crime in the United States and California, 2008-2017 by Kent Scheidegger

Excerpt California and United States [had] violent crimes rates falling in tandem prior to Realignment.  That bill took effect in October 2011, so 2011 is mostly a pre-Realignment year.  We would expect effects to show up in later years.  There is a bump in 2012, while the national number is flat, followed by a drop the year after that. Beginning in 2015, California's violent crime rates have been above the national rate to a larger extent than previously.  Overall, the California rate averaged 9% above the national rate before Realignment and 12% above since Proposition 47....

So what degree of proof would we say the simple comparison above establishes that California's soft-on-crime legislation has increased crime?  In terms familiar to lawyers, is it "proof beyond a reasonable doubt"?  Certainly not.  "Preponderance of the evidence."  No, I wouldn't claim that.  "Probable cause"? Arguably.  "Reasonable suspicion"? Certainly.

UCR Data Raises Concerns by Michael Rushford

Excerpt:  Looking at significant recent changes in state criminal justice policy, states which have legalized recreational marijuana and states which have engaged in major sentencing reform to reduce sentences were more likely to have suffered increases in violent crime that those who have not.   

Of the nine states and the District of Columbia which have legalized recreational marijuana six had increases in violent crime.  The increase in Vermont, which legalized recreational marijuana in July, was the highest at 21.4%, with Colorado coming in second at 7%.  Of the legalized marijuana states and DC, six had significant increases in homicide, with Vermont not reporting.  Massachusetts' increase was 27.5%, with Alaska's was 19.5%, followed by Nevada (17.8%), Washington (16%), Colorado (15.3%), and Maine ((14.5%).  All nine legalized marijuana states had increases in rape, with Vermont (28.2%), Maine, (14%), and Nevada (10.5%) in double digits.

Of the eight states which have enacted the most significant reforms to reduce sentences, seven had increased violent crime, and five had increases in homicide.  Three of these states had double digit increases in homicide lead by Arkansas (18.3%), and followed by Washington (16%) and Hawaii (11.5%).  

One of these posts stresses the important point that "correlation does not prove causation." But it is at least worth nothing that some are eager to note certain correlations.

September 30, 2018 at 03:10 PM | Permalink

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