Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Denver reporting notable 2014 crime reduction since legal pot sales started

As this MSNBC article highlights, new data from Denver shows a notable decrease in crime over the first quarter of 2014.  Here are the encouraging details:

Three months after Colorado residents legalized recreational marijuana with the passage of Amendment 64 in Nov. 2012, Sheriff Tom Allman of Mendocio County, Calif. – a haven for marijuana growers – warned that an onslaught of crime was headed toward Colorado. “Thugs put on masks, they come to your house, they kick in your door. They point guns at you and say, ‘Give me your marijuana, give me your money,’” Allman told a Denver TV station in February....

But a new report contends that fourteen years later, even after Colorado legalized the sale of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use on Jan. 1 of this year, violent and property crime rates in the city are actually falling.

According to data from the Denver Police Department, violent crime (including homicide, sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault) fell by 6.9% in the first quarter of 2014, compared with the same period in 2013. Property crime (including burglary, larceny, auto theft, theft from motor vehicle and arson) dropped by 11.1%.

A study looking at the legalization of medical marijuana nationwide, published late last month in the journal PLOS ONE, found that the trend holds: Not only does medical marijuana legalization not correlate with an uptick in crime, researchers from the University of Texas at Dallas argue it may actually reduce it. Using statistics from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report and controlling for variables like the unemployment and poverty rates; per capita income; age of residents; proportion of residents with college degree; number of police officers and prisoners; and even beer consumption, researchers analyzed data from all 50 states between 1990 and 2006....

“The central finding gleaned from the present study was that MML (medical marijuana legalization) is not predictive of higher crime rates and may be related to reductions in rates of homicide and assault. Interestingly, robbery and burglary rates were unaffected by medicinal marijuana legislation, which runs counter to the claim that dispensaries and grow houses lead to an increase in victimization due to the opportunity structures linked to the amount of drugs and cash that are present.”

The study drew a link between marijuana and alcohol use, surmising that the legalization of pot could cause the number of alcohol-fueled crimes to decline. “While it is important to remain cautious when interpreting these findings as evidence that MML reduces crime, these results do fall in line with recent evidence and they conform to the longstanding notion that marijuana legalization may lead to a reduction in alcohol use due to individuals substituting marijuana for alcohol. Given the relationship between alcohol and violent crime, it may turn out that substituting marijuana for alcohol leads to minor reductions in violent crimes that can be detected at the state level.”

Of course, this is a limited set of data and correlation does not prove causation. But, at the very least, this early crime data certain provide more helpful evidence for supporters of drug law reforms who are eager to assert that it is not drugs but drug prohibition that contributes to crimes.

Some recent related posts:

April 16, 2014 in Marijuana Legalization in the States, National and State Crime Data, Pot Prohibition Issues | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Friday, April 04, 2014

If it clearly saved thousands of innocent lives on roadways, would most everyone support medical marijuana reforms?

The question in the title of this post is my sincere inquiry, directed particularly to those most concerned about modern marijuana reform movements, as a follow-up to this extended (data-focused) commentary by Jacob Sollum at Forbes headlined "More Pot, Safer Roads: Marijuana Legalization Could Bring Unexpected Benefits." Here are excerpts (with key research links retained):

The anti-pot group Project SAM claims drug test data show that marijuana legalization in Washington, approved by voters in that state at the end of 2012, already has made the roads more dangerous. The group notes with alarm that the percentage of people arrested for driving under the influence of a drug (DUID) who tested positive for marijuana rose by a third between 2012 and 2013. “Even before the first marijuana store opens in Washington, normalization and acceptance [have] set in,” says Project SAM Chairman Patrick J. Kennedy. “This is a wakeup call for officials and the public about the dangerousness of this drug, especially when driving.”

In truth, these numbers do not tell us anything about the dangerousness of marijuana. They do not even necessarily mean that more people are driving while high. Furthermore, other evidence suggests that legalizing marijuana could make the roads safer, reducing traffic fatalities by encouraging the substitution of marijuana for alcohol....

According to State Toxicologist Fiona Couper, the share of DUID arrestees in Washington whose blood tested positive for THC, marijuana’s main psychoactive ingredient, rose from 18.6 percent in 2012 to 24.9 percent in 2013.  That’s an increase of more than 33 percent, as Project SAM emphasizes with a scary-looking bar graph. At the same time, the total number of DUID arrests in Washington rose by just 3 percent, about the same as the increases seen in the previous three years, while DUID arrests by state troopers (see table below) fell 16 percent.

These numbers do not suggest that Washington’s highways are awash with dangerously stoned drivers. So why the substantial increase in positive marijuana tests?  Lt. Rob Sharpe, commander of the Washington State Patrol’s Impaired Driving Section, notes that additional officers were trained to recognize drugged drivers in anticipation of marijuana legalization. So even if the number of stoned drivers remained the same, police may have pulled over more of them as a result of that training....

As Columbia University researchers Guohua Li and Joanne E. Brady pointed out a few months ago in the American Journal of Epidemiology, [a recent] increase in marijuana consumption has been accompanied by an increase in the percentage of drivers killed in car crashes who test positive for cannabinol, a marijuana metabolite.

But as with the increase in DUID arrestees who test positive for THC, this trend does not necessarily mean marijuana is causing more crashes.  A test for cannabinol, which is not psychoactive and can be detected in blood for up to a week after use, does not show the driver was under the influence of marijuana at the time of the crash, let alone that he was responsible for it. “Thus,” Li and Brady write, “the prevalence of nonalcohol drugs reported in this study should be interpreted as an indicator of drug use, not necessarily a measurement of drug impairment.”

Another reason to doubt the premise that more pot smoking means more deadly crashes: Total traffic fatalities have fallen as marijuana consumption has risen; there were about 20 percent fewer in 2012 than in 2002.  Perhaps fatalities would have fallen faster if it weren’t for all those new pot smokers.  But there is reason to believe the opposite may be true, that there would have been more fatalities if marijuana consumption had remained level or declined.

While marijuana can impair driving ability, it has a less dramatic impact than alcohol does. A 1993 report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, for example, concluded: “The impairment [from marijuana] manifests itself mainly in the ability to maintain a lateral position on the road, but its magnitude is not exceptional in comparison with changes produced by many medicinal drugs and alcohol.  Drivers under the influence of marijuana retain insight in their performance and will compensate when they can, for example, by slowing down or increasing effort.  As a consequence, THC’s adverse effects on driving performance appear relatively small.”  Similarly, a 2000 report commissioned by the British government found that “the severe effects of alcohol on the higher cognitive processes of driving are likely to make this more of a hazard, particularly at higher blood alcohol levels.”

Given these differences, it stands to reason that if more pot smoking is accompanied by less drinking, the upshot could be fewer traffic fatalities. Consistent with that hypothesis, a study published last year in the Journal of Law and Economics found that legalization of medical marijuana is associated with an 8-to-11-percent drop in traffic fatalities, beyond what would be expected based on national trends.  Montana State University economist D. Mark Anderson and his colleagues found that the reduction in alcohol-related accidents was especially clear, as you would expect if loosening restrictions on marijuana led to less drinking. They also cite evidence that alcohol consumption declined in states with medical marijuana laws.

Anderson et al. caution that the drop in deadly crashes might be due to differences in the settings where marijuana and alcohol are consumed. If people are more likely to consume marijuana at home, that could mean less driving under the influence.  Hence “the negative relationship between legalization and alcohol-related fatalities does not necessarily imply that driving under the influence of marijuana is safer than driving under the influence of alcohol,” although that is what experiments with both drugs indicate.

Arrest data from Washington are consistent with the idea that marijuana legalization could result in less drunk driving. Last year drunk driving arrests by state troopers fell 11 percent. By comparison, the number of drunk driving arrests fell by 2 percent between 2009 and 2010, stayed about the same between 2010 and 2011, and fell by 6 percent between 2011 and 2012. The drop in drunk driving arrests after marijuana legalization looks unusually large, although it should be interpreted with caution, since the number of arrests is partly a function of enforcement levels, which depend on funding and staffing.

Two authors of the Journal of Law and Economics study, Anderson and University of Colorado at Denver economist Daniel Rees, broadened their analysis in a 2013 article published by the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Anderson and Rees argue that marijuana legalization is apt, on balance, to produce “public health benefits,” mainly because of a reduction in alcohol consumption. Their projection hinges on the premise that marijuana and alcohol are substitutes. If marijuana and alcohol are instead complements, meaning that more pot smoking is accompanied by more drinking, the benefits they predict would not materialize.  Anderson and Rees say “studies based on clearly defined natural experiments generally support the hypothesis that marijuana and alcohol are substitutes.”  But in the same issue of the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, co-director of the RAND Corporation’s Drug Policy Research Center, and University of South Carolina criminologist Eric Sevigny conclude that the evidence on this point “remains mixed.”

study published last month by the online journal PLOS One suggests that the substitution of marijuana for alcohol, assuming it happens, could affect crime rates as well as car crashes. Robert G. Morris and three other University of Texas at Dallas criminologists looked at trends in homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in the 11 states that legalized marijuana for medical use between 1990 and 2006. While crime fell nationwide during this period, it fell more sharply in the medical marijuana states, even after the researchers adjusted for various other differences between states. Morris and his colleagues conclude that legalization of medical marijuana “may be related to reductions in rates of homicide and assault,” possibly because of a decline in drinking, although they caution that the extra drop in crime could be due to a variable they did not consider.

One needs to be very cautious, of course, drawing any firm conclusions based on any early research about impaired driving, car crashes, and marijuana reform. But let's imagine it does turn out generally true that legalizing medical marijuana helps produce a 10% drop in a jurisdiction's traffic fatalities. If extended nationwide throughout the US, where we have well over 30,000 traffic fatalities each and every year, this would mean we could potentially save more than 3000 innocent lives each year from nationwide medical marijuana reform. (One might contrast this number with debated research and claims made about the number of lives possibly saved by the death penalty: I do not believe I have seen any research from even ardent death penalty supporters to support the assertion that even much more robust use of the death penalty in the US would be likely to save even 1000 innocent lives each year.)

Obviously, many people can and many people surely would question and contest a claim that we could or would potentially save more than 3000 innocent lives each year from nationwide medical marijuana reform. But, for purposes of debate and discussion (and to know just how important additional research in this arena might be to on-going pot reform debates), I sincerely wonder if anyone would still actively oppose medical marijuana reform if (and when?) we continue to see compelling data that such reform might save over 50 innocent lives each and every week throughout the United States.

Cross-posted at Marijuana Law, Policy and Reform

April 4, 2014 in Marijuana Legalization in the States, National and State Crime Data, Offense Characteristics, Pot Prohibition Issues | Permalink | Comments (33) | TrackBack

Thursday, March 27, 2014

New study suggests legalizing medical marijuana may reduce violent crime

This new Washington Post piece, headlined "No, legalizing medical marijuana doesn’t lead to crime, according to actual crime stats," a notable new study provides reason to think (or at least hope) that medical marijuana reforms may actually be a crime reduction strategy. Here are excerpts from the Post posting, with links to the study being discussed:

Actual historic crime data, however, suggest there's no evidence that legalizing the drug for medicinal purposes leads to an increase in crime. In fact, states that have legalized it appear to have seen some reductions in the rates of homicide and assault.

These findings come from a nationwide study published Wednesday in the journal PLOS One (which is notable for the fact that no one seems to have done this crucial analysis before).  Researchers at the University of Texas at Dallas looked at the FBI's Uniform Crime Report data across the country between 1990 and 2006, a span during which 11 states legalized medical marijuana. Throughout this time period, crime was broadly falling throughout the United States.  But a closer look at the differences between these states —  and within the states that legalized the drug before and after the law's passage — further shows no noticeable local uptick among a whole suite of crimes: homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft.

The robbery and burglary findings are particularly interesting, as those are the crimes we'd most likely expect to see outside of medical dispensaries.  But what about the apparent declines in homicide and assault?

The researchers, Robert G. Morris, Michael TenEyck, J.C. Barnes and Tomislav V. Kovandzic, caution that this may be a mere statistical artifact of their analysis. But there's also a plausible explanation:

While it is important to remain cautious when interpreting these findings as evidence that MML reduces crime, these results do fall in line with recent evidence and they conform to the longstanding notion that marijuana legalization may lead to a reduction in alcohol use due to individuals substituting marijuana for alcohol. Given the relationship between alcohol and violent crime, it may turn out that substituting marijuana for alcohol leads to minor reductions in violent crimes that can be detected at the state level.

Their analysis controlled for other potentially confounding factors: employment and poverty rates in each state, income and education levels, age and urban demographics, per-capita rates of prison inmates and police officers, as well as per-capita rates of beer consumption (per the Beer Institute).

The results don't definitely prove that medical marijuana has no effect on crime (or that it might even reduce it). Maybe the researchers failed to account for some other crucial variable here, some common factor that further depressed crime in precisely these 11 states, precisely after the moment that each passed a medical marijuana law, masking the actual crime increase caused by the policy. Or, there's this interpretation, from the authors:

Perhaps the more likely explanation of the current findings is that [medical marijuana] laws reflect behaviors and attitudes that have been established in those societies. If these attitudes and behaviors reflect a more tolerant populace that is less likely to infringe on one another’s personal rights, we are unlikely to expect an increase in crime and might even anticipate a slight reduction in personal crimes.

March 27, 2014 in Marijuana Legalization in the States, National and State Crime Data, Pot Prohibition Issues | Permalink | Comments (29) | TrackBack

Thursday, March 06, 2014

"How to Lie with Rape Statistics: America's Hidden Rape Crisis"

The title of this post is the title of this intriguing new paper on SSRN authored by Corey Rayburn Yung. Here is the abstract:

During the last two decades, many police departments substantially undercounted reported rapes creating "paper" reductions in crime.  Media investigations in Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and St. Louis found that police eliminated rape complaints from official counts because of cultural hostility to rape complaints and to create the illusion of success in fighting violent crime.  The undercounting cities used three difficult-to-detect methods to remove rape complaints from official records: designating a complaint as "unfounded" with little or no investigation; classifying an incident as a lesser offense; and, failing to create a written report that a victim made a rape complaint.

This study addresses how widespread the practice of undercounting rape is in police departments across the country.  Because identifying fraudulent and incorrect data is essentially the task of distinguishing highly unusual data patterns, I apply a statistical outlier detection technique to determine which jurisdictions have substantial anomalies in their data.  Using this novel method to determine if other municipalities likely failed to report the true number of rape complaints made, I find significant undercounting of rape incidents by police departments across the country.  The results indicate that approximately 22% of the 210 studied police departments responsible for populations of at least 100,000 persons have substantial statistical irregularities in their rape data indicating considerable undercounting from 1995 to 2012.  Notably, the number of undercounting jurisdictions has increased by over 61% during the eighteen years studied.

Correcting the data to remove police undercounting by imputing data from highly correlated murder rates, the study conservatively estimates that 796,213 to 1,145,309 complaints of forcible vaginal rapes of female victims nationwide disappeared from the official records from 1995 to 2012.  Further, the corrected data reveal that the study period includes fifteen to eighteen of the highest rates of rape since tracking of the data began in 1930. Instead of experiencing the widely reported "great decline" in rape, America is in the midst of a hidden rape crisis.  Further, the techniques that conceal rape complaints deprioritize those cases so that police conduct little or no investigation. Consequently, police leave serial rapists, who constitute the overwhelming majority of rapists, free to attack more victims. Based upon the findings of this study, governments at all levels must revitalize efforts to combat the cloaked rise in sexual violence and the federal government must exercise greater oversight of the crime reporting process to ensure accuracy of the data provided.

March 6, 2014 in National and State Crime Data, Procedure and Proof at Sentencing, Race, Class, and Gender, Sex Offender Sentencing, Victims' Rights At Sentencing, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

"Semi-annual FBI Report Confirms Crime down as Gun Sales Up, Notes CCRKBA"

Regular readers know I am ever interested in every perspective concerning the great American modern crime decline. Consequently, I found notable this new press release from the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms. The press release shares the title of this post, and here are excerpts:

The FBI’s semi-annual uniform crime data for the first half of 2013 confirms once again what the firearms community already knew, that violent crime has continued to decline while gun sales have continued to climb, the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms said today.

The report, issued last week, says murders declined 6.9 percent from the first half of 2012, while aggravated assaults dropped by 6.6 percent nationwide and robberies were down 1.8 percent. Forcible rapes declined 10.6 percent from the same period in 2012 and overall, violent crime fell by 10.6 percent in non-metropolitan counties and 3.6 percent in metropolitan counties.

“This new information reinforces the notion that not only do guns save lives, their presence in the hands and homes of law-abiding citizens just might be a deterrent to crime,” observed CCRKBA Chairman Alan Gottlieb. “The National Shooting Sports Foundation has been reporting a steady increase in firearm sales for the past few years. Taken as a whole, one cannot help but conclude that the predictions from gun prohibitionists that more guns leads to more crime have been consistently wrong.”

Gottlieb said the tired argument from the anti-gun lobby that more firearms in the hands of private citizens would result in sharp increases in violence have run out of traction. Not only has the decline in crime corresponded with an increase in gun sales, it also coincides with a steady rise in the number of citizens obtaining concealed carry licenses and permits, he noted.

“The FBI report says burglaries and auto theft have also decreased,” Gottlieb said, “and it is impossible to look at this pattern and not suggest that increased gun ownership just might be one contributing factor. Gun prohibitionists would, of course, dismiss that suggestion as poppycock, but you can bet your life savings that if the data was reversed, and violent crime had risen, the gun control lobby would be rushing to every available microphone declaring that guns were to blame.

Some related posts on modern crime rates: 

February 25, 2014 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Even with reductions in prison populations and end of pot prohibition, crime rates continue historic decline in 2013

Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report- January-June 2013-bannerAs reported in this New York Times piece, the "Federal Bureau of Investigation said Tuesday that violent crimes, including murders, fell by 5.4 percent in the first six months of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012, continuing a long reduction in violent crime across the country." Here are more details about this great news via the FBI (which is available in full detail at this link):

The only category where the number increased was rape, but that number is slightly misleading because the 2013 figure is based on a broader definition of the crime adopted by the Justice Department. In 2013, 14,400 rapes were reported, compared with 13,242 in 2012.

Property crimes also fell significantly, and of all the crimes the F.B.I. tracks — both violent offenses and nonviolent ones — the greatest drop-off, by percentage, was in arsons, which fell by 15.6 percent....

In all, murders fell by 6.9 percent, aggravated assaults by 6.6 percent and robberies by 1.8 percent, the bureau said. The numbers are based on reports from 12,723 law enforcement agencies that provided information to the bureau’s Criminal Justice Information Services Division in Clarksburg, W.Va.

According to the bureau, the number of violent crimes fell by 9.2 percent in cities with fewer than 10,000 people, compared with 3.6 percent for metropolitan counties. In the Midwest, violent crimes fell by 7.4 percent, in the South by 5.9, in the Northeast by 4.3 percent and in the West by 3.7 percent.

Among property crimes, burglary decreased by 8.1 percent, larceny theft by 4.7 percent and motor vehicle theft by 3.2 percent. Arsons fell by 20.4 percent in nonmetropolitan counties and 15.8 percent in metropolitan counties. The decrease in property crimes over all was 12 percent in nonmetropolitan counties and 7.4 percent in metropolitan counties, and the smallest drop-off in property crime occurred in the West, where it fell by 0.3 percent.

In compiling the rape numbers, the bureau used a new definition of rape that removes the word “forcible” and now includes “penetration, no matter how slight” of any orifice “without the consent of the victim,” either men or women. Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said in 2012 that changes were “long overdue.”

“This new, more inclusive definition will provide us with a more accurate understanding of the scope and volume of these crimes,” he said. The new definition, federal authorities said, reflected the majority of state rape statutes.

Besides highlighting how crime definition can impact crime statistics, these wonderful new data provide still further evidence that direct causal links between incarceration rates (or drug war reforms) and national crime rates are hard to establish. As regular readers know, the national prison population has declined a bit in recent years and there have been a wide array of reforms to sentencing laws and corrections policies that have resulted in significant numbers of early prisoner releases (especially in California due to the the Plata litigation and in the federal system due to the Fair Sentencing Act).

In the wake of recent sentencing reforms and in advocacy against further reforms, a number of folks have been predicting we would see a significant increase in crimes. And because crime rate are already at historically low levels, I have long been concerned that would soon start to see an uptick in offense rates. But, at least according to this new FBI data, the great modern crime decline is continuing nationwide even as we are starting to see a slow decline in prison populations and as slow retreat from the scope and severity of the modern drug war.  

That said, given that other federal accounting of crime rates showed a spike upward in 2012, as reported here, this FBI data ought not lead advocate of sentencing reforms to assert that we now know that there is no harmful public safety impact resulting from sentencing reforms.  The lastest crime data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported crime rates started going back up in 2012 (discussed here), and I have long stressing the need and importance of a careful state-by-state examination of where crime is going up and whether new (and still emerging) data on changes imprisonment rates and crimes rates provide critical new lessons concerning what we can now reasonably and reliably conclude about the connections between crime and punishment.

A few related posts on modern crime rates: 

February 19, 2014 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Monday, February 03, 2014

"Research on [lead]’s effects on the brain bolsters the hypothesis that childhood exposure is linked to criminal acts"

LeadRegular readers know I am intrigued by the possibility that lead exposure could be a very important part of the very important modern story of US violent crime rates.  This new piece on lead and crime, appearing in Chemical & Engineering News, carries the subheadline I have used in the title of this post. Here are excerpts of a piece that merits a full read by anyone and everyone concerned about US violent crime rates and what might significantly impact them: 

When crime rates began to drop across the U.S. during the 1990s, city officials and criminologists were thrilled — but baffled.  Violent acts, most often committed by young adults, had reached an all-time high at the start of the decade, and there was no sign of a turnaround.

By the close of the ’90s, though, the homicide rate had declined more than 40% throughout the country.  Economists and criminologists have since proposed reasons for the unexpected plummet.  Some have pointed to an increase in police officers.  Others have suggested a rise in the number of offenders put behind bars.  Economist and “Freakonomics” coauthor Steven D. Levitt famously hypothesized that the legalization of abortion in 1973 even played a role....

But recently, experts have been kicking around another possible player in the crime drop of the ’90s: lead.  Cars burning leaded gasoline spewed the heavy metal into the air until 1973, when the Environmental Protection Agency mandated the fuel’s gradual phaseout. Lead-based paint was banned from newly built homes in 1978.  Because of these actions, children born in the mid- to late-1970s grew up with less lead in their bodies than children born earlier.  As a result, economists argue, kids born in the ’70s reached adulthood in the ’90s with healthier brains and less of a penchant for violence....

As the lead-crime hypothesis gains traction in economics circles, critics are invoking the “correlation does not equal causation” mantra.  But scientists argue that there is evidence that lead exposure increases aggression in lab animals.  And even though lead, one of the oldest known poisons, affects the brain in a dizzying number of ways, researchers are beginning to tease out some of the mechanisms by which it might trigger violence in humans....

Looking for explanations of the ’90s crime drop in the U.S., economists and crime experts latched onto ... epidemiology studies. “We saw these correlations for individuals and thought, ‘If that’s true, we should see it at an aggregate level, for the whole population,’ ” says Paul B. Stretesky, a criminologist at the University of Colorado, Denver.  In 2001, while at Colorado State University, Stretesky looked at data for more than 3,000 counties across the U.S., comparing lead concentrations in the air to homicide rates for the year 1990.  Correcting for confounding social factors such as countywide income and education level, he and colleague Michael J. Lynch of the University of South Florida found that homicide rates in counties with the most extreme air-lead concentrations were four times as high as in counties with the least extreme levels.

Others have found similar correlations for U.S. cities, states, and even neighborhoods. In 2000, Rick Nevin, now a senior economist with ICF International, saw the trend for the entire country.  In general, these researchers see blood-lead levels and air-lead levels increase, peak in the early 1970s, and fall, making an inverted U-shape.  About 18 to 23 years later, when babies born in the ’70s reach the average age of criminals, violent crime rates follow a similar trajectory....

Research has shown that lead exposure does indeed make lab animals — rodents, monkeys, even cats — more prone to aggression.  But establishing biological plausibility for the lead-crime argument hasn’t been as clear-cut for molecular-level studies of the brain.... On the brain development side of things, lead interferes with, among other things, the process of synaptic pruning....

“If you have a brain that’s miswired, especially in areas involved in what psychologists call the executive functions — judgment, impulse control, anticipation of consequences — of course you might display aggressive behavior,” says Kim N. Dietrich, director of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine.

Dietrich and his colleagues have been studying lead’s effects on the developing brain for more than 30 years. In the late 1970s, he and a group of other investigators recruited some 300 pregnant women for what would become the Cincinnati Lead Study.  At the time, these women lived in parts of Cincinnati — typically the inner city — that had experienced historically high numbers of lead-poisoning cases.  Once the recruits’ babies were born, Dietrich and his group began monitoring the newborns too.

From the time they were born until they were six-and-a-half years old, the young participants had their blood-lead levels measured 23 times.  The average childhood concentration for the whole group was 13 µg/dL.  Now adults in their 30s, the subjects are having their brains scanned and behaviors analyzed.  And the results are eerie.  As of 2008, 250 members of the lead study had been arrested a total of 800 times.  The participants’ average blood-lead levels during childhood also correlated with their arrest rate, Dietrich’s team found....

Most kids in the U.S. today have a blood-lead level of 1 or 2 µg/dL.  But there are nearly a half-million children between the ages of one and five with a blood-lead level above the 5-µg/dL threshold.  These are mostly kids who are growing up in dilapidated inner-city houses with lead paint still on the walls or in neighborhoods with elevated levels of lead in the soil.

Despite progress in lowering lead levels in the environment, these kids would benefit from the reevaluation of crime policies and reinvigoration of cleanup efforts, says U of Colorado’s Stretesky. “People who are suffering the most from lead exposure are those that tend to be poor, minority, and low income.”

Some related posts:

February 3, 2014 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data, Offender Characteristics | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack

Monday, January 27, 2014

A useful reminder of the challenge of assessing crime rates, lies, damn lies and statistics

With apologies to Mark Twain for tweaking his famed comment about lies, damned lies, and statistics, the title of this post stems from this interesting recent story about the challenges of crime rate measurement and statistics.  The story is from the Denver Post and it is headlined "Denver's top law enforcement officers disagree: Is crime up or down?". Here is how the piece starts:

Denver's top two law enforcement officials disagree on the answer to what ought to be a simple question: Is violent crime up or down?

Police Chief Robert White and District Attorney Mitch Morrissey aren't quibbling over minor details; they have a nearly 18 percentage-point difference in opinion about the way crime is trending.  Experts say their disagreement underscores the complexities of measuring and interpreting crime trends in a major city.

White has repeatedly said violent crime fell 8.6 percent last year. Morrissey wonders how that can be true when felony cases submitted to his office rose 9 percent during the same time.  "One of the things you can glean from it is that the crime rate is going up. It has to be.  (The police) are presenting more cases to us," Morrissey told The Denver Post. "The trend is that our caseloads are getting bigger and bigger.  How is that possible with the crime rate going down?  I don't know."

White stood by the 8.6 percent decline he has boasted about at public gatherings and in police stations, saying it was the result of better police work, even with fewer officers on the street.  "How about the fact that maybe the police department is doing a better job of arresting the right people?" White said.  "His cases are going up because the police are out there working their butt off and doing a better job.  That's not rocket science."

But there is some science to crime statistics, said Callie Rennison, an associate professor in the University of Colorado Denver's School of Public Affairs. "It's a hard, hard thing to measure, which of course makes it hard to say, 'Well is it really going up or really going down?' " she said.  "Anyone who tells you, 'Here's my stat, it's a perfect one,' immediately don't trust them. No stat is perfect, but some are less perfect than others."

January 27, 2014 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Thursday, November 14, 2013

If concerned principally about saving lives and public safety, can one reasonably oppose mass use red-light cameras?

The question in title of this post is prompted by this local news item from my own local paper headlined "Coalition says red-light cameras reducing accidents, saving lives." Here are excerpts:

The battle over whether red-light cameras are primarily lifesavers or money-makers is being re-fought in the General Assembly seven years after it began. Cameras placed at critical intersections, including 38 in Columbus, help dramatically reduce accidents and save lives, a statewide coalition said yesterday, pushing back against a legislative proposal that would all but eliminate the devices in Ohio.

House Bill 69, passed by the House this year, “is bad public policy that puts people at risk on Ohio roads,” Sgt. Brett Bauer of the Springfield Police Department said at a Statehouse news conference. Red-light cameras “are making roads safer in Springfield and across the state,” he said. The bill would limit cameras to school zones — and then only when an officer was present.

A coalition of police officials from Columbus and other cities, plus municipal officials, bicycle enthusiasts and safety advocates, appeared at the news conference alongside Sen. Kevin Bacon, R-Minerva Park, who is planning legislation to reform how the cameras may be used rather than repeal the use of cameras, as the House bill would do.

The most emotional advocate in favor of continuing using the cameras was Paul Oberhauser of Somerset, whose 31-year-old daughter, Sarah, was killed in 2002 when a motorist ran a red light and hit her car in an intersection at 55 mph. “The year Sarah died, about 1,000 people nationally were killed in red-light accidents,” Oberhauser said. “I know you understand this carnage has got to stop.”...

Right-angle crashes are down 74 percent in Columbus, while rear-end crashes have dropped 25 percent at intersections with cameras, said Lt. Brenton Mull of the Columbus Division of Police. The city has 38 cameras at intersections scattered across the city. “It is a model program that should be emulated, not thrown out because someone doesn’t like getting a ticket from a red-light camera,” he said.

As regular readers (and my students) know well, I like to focus on traffic laws as a means to test whether and when citizens are really prepared to live up to oft-heard claims about the importance of public safety and saving innocent lives. In the context of debates over gun control, the death penalty, mass incarceration and other high-profile public policy criminal justice debates, there is often considerable competing claims and evidence concerning whether and when certain government policies actually do or do not save innocent lives and improve public safety. But this local article confirms my understanding that red-light cameras do tend to improve public safety at least somewhat (and does so in a way that actually raises revenue for localities rather than require significant expenditures).

I fully understand why persons principally concerned about privacy rights or due process or government graft might have real problems with widespread use and potential abuse of red-light cameras. But I really want to hear from readers if they think that those persons who say their principally criminal justice concerns relate to saving lives and public safety (as I do) have any sound basis for opposing mass use of these cameras.

November 14, 2013 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data, Purposes of Punishment and Sentencing | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Do lead exposure realities continue to best explain modern crime-rate realities?

Every time I see reports new reports about crime rates in the United States or in certain regions, I cannot avoid continuing to think about the interesting research connecting crime rates and childhood exposure to lead.  Against that backdrop, I was pleased that Rick Nevin, a Senior Economist at ICF International, sent me this lengthy e-mail discussing his research and writing on this topic:

I want to thank you for yourJanuary blog about the Mother Jones article discussing my lead and crime research.  I also want to let you know that I have several posts at www.ricknevin.com that update my earlier analyses, and are closely related to recent posts:

Your October 28 post about the NYT editorial on "Why Prisons Are Shrinking" is related to my paper on The Plummeting USA Incarceration Rate showing that the recent incarceration rate decline reflects much steeper declines for younger adults (ages 18-30) born across years of declining lead exposure, partly offset by rising incarceration rates for older adults born across years of pandemic lead poisoning. 

Your October post on NYC murder rates is directly related to my post on Why is the Murder Rate Lower in New York City?

You had two posts in October about 2012 FBI and BJS data showing relatively stable crime rates related to my recent Lead Poisoning and Juvenile Crime Update paper showing that juvenile arrest rates are falling to record lows since 1980, reflecting ongoing declines in lead exposure over the 1990s, while arrest rates since 1980 have increased for older adults.  This paper also updates my crime trend graphs for Britain and Canada showing the predictive power of earlier lead exposure trends, with the same relationship between lead exposure and crime trends and the same shifts in arrest rates by age observed in the USA.  I also have a recent paper showing how lead exposure trends can explain Juvenile Arrest Rate Trends by Race and Gender

I also have a post on Lead Exposure and Murder in Latin America and a longer paper called The Answer is Lead Poisoning that updates and integrates findings from several of my related peer-reviewed studies.  All of the questions at The Questions link to this same paper.

I know the Kevin Drum story in Mother Jones seemed new and speculative to most readers, but there is actually a large body of research now supporting this relationship, and I have links to many peer-reviewed studies in my posted papers.  I don’t know of any other criminology theory that can explain both the rise and fall of crime in so many places -- and different trends by age, race, and gender -- or any theory that has so accurately predicted ongoing crime trends in so many different places for so many years.  I hope you will consider bringing some of this information to a broader audience through your blog, and I would welcome your use of any text or graphs from my posted papers.

Some recent related posts:

October 30, 2013 in National and State Crime Data, Offender Characteristics, Prisons and prisoners, Scope of Imprisonment | Permalink | Comments (32) | TrackBack

Monday, October 28, 2013

NY Times editorial (poorly) urges better assessments of "Why Prisons Are Shrinking"

Today's New York Times has this new editorial headlined "Why Prisons Are Shrinking" making these important points:

The mandatory sentencing movement that swept the United States beginning in the 1970s drove the state prison population up from less than 200,000 to about 1.4 million today and made corrections the second-fastest-growing state expense after Medicaid.  But bipartisan sentencing reforms in a growing number of states are starting to reverse that trend — causing the prison population to decline by about 3.8 percent since 2009.

Underlying the state reforms is a relatively new and more sophisticated way of using data about the offender — including criminal history, drug abuse and instances of antisocial behavior — to assess the likelihood of that individual’s committing a new crime.  And by examining arrest, sentencing and probation data, the states can revise policies that might be driving people back into prison unnecessarily....

Despite the merits of a risk-assessment approach, a report issued earlier this year by the Council of State Governments Justice Center said that many states are still flying blind, because they don’t have the resources to gather data.  Moreover, the study noted, handling high-risk and low-risk offenders in the same way is a big mistake, because “low risk individuals have an increased likelihood of recidivism when they are oversupervised or receive treatment or services in the same programs as medium- and high-risk individuals.”

There are proven ways to move away from discredited, ruinously expensive corrections policies.  More states need to adopt these approaches.

I am fully supportive of the ideas and themes in this editorial, but a lot more could and should be said at this dynamic moment of sentencing and corrections reform. For example, in the wake of the lastest crime data indicating a spike up in national violent and property crimes (discussed here), this editorial should be stressing the need and importance of a careful state-by-state examination of where crime is going up and whether new (and still emerging) data on changes imprisonment rates and crimes rates provide critical new lessons concerning what we can now conclude about the connections between crime and punishment.

In addition, I think this editorial (and other advocacy concerning these critical issues) ought to be urging sustained examination and analysis of a handful of big jurisdictions in which stories of crime and punishment have been especially dynamic over the last few years.  Specifically, I strongly believe that the big states of California, Illinois, New York and Texas, all of which have diverse urban and rural regions and all of which have changes its sentencing laws in diverse ways in recent years, should be a special focal point for sorting through and fairly assessing "proven ways to move away from discredited, ruinously expensive corrections policies."

Last but not least, federal sentencing realities and reform discussions — as well as the interesting "new politics" of criminal justce reform — should be brought into these discussions ASAP.  The federal prison population continues to grow despite the reforms ushered in by the Fair Sentencing Act, and it is now unclear whether or when any additional proposed federal sentencing reforms will get through Congress and if any of these reforms will effectively incorporate "proven ways to move away from discredited, ruinously expensive corrections policies."  More broadly, I think this editorial (and other advocacy concerning these critical issues) should be urging Congress — and especially those eager to support state rights and state-level solutions — to help provide states with the "the resources to gather data" and build on successful reform efforts.  (For example, I have long believe the feds ought to be conducting a kind of "race to the top" federal funding competition to motivate the better development and analysis of state-level crime and punishment data.)

Just a few of many recent related posts:

October 28, 2013 in National and State Crime Data, Procedure and Proof at Sentencing, Purposes of Punishment and Sentencing, Scope of Imprisonment, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Uh-oh: BJS reporting significant spike up in violent and property crime for 2012

Given the historic and unprecedented declines in US crime rates over the last 20 years, smart criminal justice observers knew it was only a question of when, not whether, crime rates were likely to at some point start going back up.  A new report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics reveals that 2012 was the time for crime to start going back up.  This BJS press release, titled ominously "For Second Consecutive Year Violent And Property Crime Rates Increased In 2012," reports these basic details:

Violent and property crime rates rose for U.S. residents in 2012, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) announced today. These estimates are based on data from the annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) which has collected information from victims of crime age 12 or older since 1973.

The violent crime rate (which includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault) rose from 22.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2011 to 26.1 in 2012. Crime not reported to police and simple assault accounted for the majority of this increase. Violent victimizations not reported to police increased from 10.8 per 1,000 persons in 2011 to 14.0 in 2012, and simple assault rates rose from 15.4 to 18.2 per 1,000. The rate of violent crime reported to police did not change significantly from 2011 to 2012.

The rate of property crime (which includes burglary, theft and motor vehicle theft) increased from 138.7 per 1,000 households in 2011 to 155.8 in 2012, primarily due to an increase in theft. The rate of theft victimization increased from 104.2 per 1,000 households in 2011 to 120.9 in 2012.

In 2012, 44 percent of violent victimizations and 54 percent of serious violent victimizations were reported to police. These percentages were not statistically different from 2011. The percentage of property victimizations reported to police declined from 37 percent in 2011 to 34 percent in 2012....

Other findings from the report include the following:...

  • Violent crime rates increased slightly in 2012 for blacks but remained stable for whites and Hispanics.
  • In 2012, residents in urban areas continued to experience the highest rate of violent crime. Residents in the West had higher rates of violent victimization than residents in other regions of the country.
  • The composition of violent crime remained stable in 2012.  From 1993 to 2012, simple assaults made up approximately 70 percent of all violent victimizations.

To fully understand the impact and import of this new crime data, one needs to dig deeply in to all the numbers and definitions in this full 17-page BJS report.  A review of that document highlights, inter alia, that even these spiked up crime rates being reported for 2012 are still well below the rates reported in 2003, and also that homicide rates appear to be still at record lows.

That all said, the "Uh-oh" in the title of this post is because I fear policy-makers and politicians will focus mostly on the BJS headline stating simply "For Second Consecutive Year Violent And Property Crime Rates Increased In 2012."  A headline like that, especially if and when emphasized by those who oppose any progressive sentencing reform, could very well slow down or stop any developing federal sentencing reform momentum.

October 24, 2013 in National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (28) | TrackBack

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Why are murder rates so high in Puerto Rico and might criminal law be to blame?

A thoughtful reader responded to this recent post on violent crime rates in New York City and Chicago with these interesting comments:

I wonder why I rarely see coverage on your blog of the high crime rate in Puerto Rico, which has a per capita murder rate six times higher than the rest of the U.S (and, which, if it were on the mainland, would probably be occupied by the National Guard by now). The USAO has been borrowing state prosecutors to process criminals; jails are overflowing; the federal government seeks capital punishment in some very egregious cases although the local constitution and popular opinion opposes it. These seem to be items of relevance to Sentencing Law and Policy.... Please help to draw attention to the depressing, yet interesting, criminal issues facing the island.

Upon my request, this helpful reader suggested the following links to draw more attention to the "depressing, yet interesting, criminal issues facing" that lovely island:

October 20, 2013 in National and State Crime Data, Purposes of Punishment and Sentencing, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Friday, October 18, 2013

What the heck is NYC doing so right to reduce murders, and why can't Chicago replicate it?

The question in the title of this post is prompted by this notable little news item from the New York Times headlined "New York Today: Murder Milestone." Here are the encouraging details:

The city’s murder rate keeps plummeting. So far this year, it’s down 26 percent, officials said.

If that trend holds, it would be the biggest one-year drop yet. And last year had the fewest murders in at least 50 years.

We asked the police bureau chief of The New York Times, Joseph Goldstein, to explain the decline. Some credit goes to a focus by the police on informal youth gangs known as crews, Mr. Goldstein told us.

The police, he said, “make the point that murders attributable to street violence are down even more significantly.” Last week, there were no murders at all.

The drop comes even as officers are doing only about half as many stop-and-frisks as they did at the beginning of last year.

Michael Jacobson, a former city correction commissioner and now a sociology professor at City University of New York, noted that last year’s total of 419 murders was down from 2,245 in 1990.

“If you asked any criminologist 20 years ago, ‘Can it go from 2,200 to 400?’ they would have thought you were insane,” he said. “But if it can go from 2,200 to 400, why can’t it go from 400 to 200?”

This wonderful reality should be celebrated by everyone, though it ought to be especially cheered by those who claimed that recent violent crime declines in the NYC were attributable primarily to very aggressive stop-and-frisk policies and practices. Also of note, especially for sentencing fans, is that this continuing decline in NYC murders is taking place within in a state without the death penalty and with a relatively low (and recently declining) prison population.

Of course, correlation does not mean causation, and a major city in a major state (Chicago, Illinois) is having continuing big problems with violent crime during the same period. Indeed, while folks in Chicago are now very busy having an interesting and robust debate over whether a law proposing mandatory minimum sentences for gun possession is a good way to fight violent crime (as documented in this effective op-ed and this prior post), I wonder if they might use their time and energy more effectively by trying everything they can to replicate everything that folks in NYC are doing lately.

Some related posts on modern crime rates, especially in urban areas: 

October 18, 2013 in Mandatory minimum sentencing statutes, National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack

Monday, September 16, 2013

FBI releases 2012 crime statistics showing stability in relatively low crime rates

12violentcrimeoffensefigureAs explained in this official press release, today the FBI released its accounting of 2012 crime in the United States based on its "statistical compilation of offense and arrest data reported by law enforcement agencies voluntarily participating in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)  program."  And here are the highlights of this data:

The FBI estimated that in 2012, the number of violent crimes increased 0.7 percent, according to the figures released today.  However, property crimes decreased 0.9 percent, marking the 10th straight year of declines for these offenses, collectively.

The 2012 statistics show that the estimated rate of violent crime was 386.9 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants, and the property crime rate was 2,859.2 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants.  While the violent crime rate remained virtually unchanged when compared to the 2011 rate, the property crime rate declined 1.6 percent.

I tend not to get too moved by year-to-year variations in these crime statistics, but long-term patterns are always worth noting.  And the violent crime data reported here (and via the graph reprinted above), remain encouraging: "When considering 5- and 10-year trends, the 2012 estimated violent crime total was 12.9 percent below the 2008 level and 12.2 below the 2003 level."

September 16, 2013 in National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Sunday, August 11, 2013

New National Academy of Sciences effort seeking to unpack the crime decline

As reported via this helpful piece at The Crime Report, some really important and smart folks are now hard at work trying to understand fully the modern US crime decline. Here are the basics of the effort as explained in the start of this linked report:

The crime level has dropped in the United States over the past two decades, but definitive explanations are lacking. With funding from the Justice Department’s National Institute of Justice, the National Academy of Sciences has organized a project to address that important issue. In a chat with The Crime Report’s Washington Bureau Chief Ted Gest, criminologist Richard Rosenfeld of the University of Missouri-St. Louis — who heads the effort — explains the project’s aims, reports on the topics covered at the first sessions in Washington in June, and explains why it would be a “bad bet” to assume the crime drop will continue indefinitely.

The Crime Report: How is this project organized?

Richard Rosenfeld: It is a so-called “roundtable” on crime trends.  The group met in June, and we plan to hold five more sessions over the next three years to hear from experts about various aspects of changes in crime rates over time, both in the United States and elsewhere.  We’re primarily focusing on changes in the United States over the last several decades, but at our first meeting we also talked about centuries-long changes in Europe and the U.S., going back to colonial America.  This is a broad and comprehensive look at changes over time in crime, and some of the factors connected with those changes.

TCR: Who is involved?

Rosenfeld: There are 16 members of the roundtable.  Twelve are academics, including nine criminologists: myself, Eric Baumer of Florida State University, Shawn Bushway of the University at Albany (SUNY), Manuel Eisner of the University of Cambridge, Susan Herman of Pace University, Dan Isom of the University of Missouri-St. Louis (a former police chief); Janet Lauritsen of the University of Missouri-St. Louis, Maria Velez of the University of New Mexico, and David Weisburd of George Mason University and The Hebrew University.  The other academics are public health expert David Hemenway of Harvard; historian Randolph Roth of Ohio State University, and economist Jose Scheinkman of Princeton University.  Non-academics in the group are Jim Bueermann, a former police chief who now heads the Police Foundation, District Attorney George Gascon of San Francisco; Maxine Hayes, Washington State Health Officer, and Florida Circuit Judge Cindy Lederman.

TCR: Tell us about the first two sessions.

Rosenfeld: We met in Washington, D.C., for two days in June. The five public sessions covered these topics: U.S. crime trends in historical perspective, trends disaggregated by offense type, regional and local variations; gender, race and ethnicity of victims and offenders; and U.S. crime trends in international perspective. The content of the presentations, all of which were made by roundtable members, may be seen at this site.

At our next meeting, which will also be in Washington, at an early December date to be determined, we will focus on the “lead hypothesis,” that the removal of lead from paint and gasoline resulted in crime declines some years later and may largely explain the crime drop.  We’ll hear from people who have researched that topic.  We haven’t yet set the agendas for the four sessions that will follow that.

A few related posts on modern crime rates: 

August 11, 2013 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack

Monday, August 05, 2013

"Va. gun crime drops again as firearm sales soar"

The title of this post is the headline of this notable big article recently appearing in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.  Here are excerpts:

Gun-related violent crime continues to drop in Virginia as the sales of firearms continue to soar, a pattern that one local criminologist finds interesting “given the current rhetoric about strengthening gun laws.”

Major gun crime collectively dropped for a fourth consecutive year statewide, while firearms sales climbed to a new record in 2012 with 490,119 guns purchased in 444,844 transactions — a 16 percent rise over 2011, according to federally licensed gun dealer sales estimates obtained by the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The proliferation of guns occurred as the total number of major reported crimes committed with all types of firearms in Virginia dropped 5 percent, from 4,618 offenses in 2011 to 4,378 last year, according to Virginia State Police data.  Looking back over seven years, total firearm sales in Virginia have risen a staggering 101 percent from 2006 to 2012, while gun-related crime has dropped 28 percent during that period.

“This appears to be additional evidence that more guns don’t necessarily lead to more crime,” said Thomas R. Baker, an assistant professor at Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs who specializes in research methods and criminology theory.

“It’s a quite interesting trend given the current rhetoric about strengthening gun laws and the presumed effect it would have on violent crimes,” Baker added.  “While you can’t conclude from this that tougher laws wouldn’t reduce crime even more, it really makes you question if making it harder for law-abiding people to buy a gun would have any effect on crime.”

But Josh Horwitz, the leader of a national gun-control group, does not find the comparison of gun crime to legal gun sales particularly significant, and views any perceived correlation between the two sets of data as essentially meaningless.  “Guns sold incident to a background check are less likely to be involved in crimes than guns sold without a background check,” said Horwitz, executive director of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. “So the real question — which I don’t think we really know — is what’s the level of gun sales without a background check?

“In other words, if people who buy those guns and have a background check, and keep those guns and don’t sell them, then you would not expect that those guns would affect the crime rate,” Horwitz said. “The important analysis is not the total number of guns sold with a background check, but rather the number of guns sold without a background check.”...

Baker cautioned against drawing any conclusions that more guns in the hands of Virginians are causing a corresponding drop in gun crime, as some academics and gun-rights supporters have argued.  “To substantiate (that) argument, you would need to eliminate a number of other factors that could potentially explain away the relationship of more guns, less crime in Virginia,” Baker said. “Only if the relationship remained after controlling for additional factors could a researcher be more comfortable making the claim that more guns lead to less crime.  But what the data does show is that the ‘more guns, less crime argument’ is certainly possible.”...

Although overall gun-related crime dropped 5 percent last year, murders and non-negligent manslaughter deaths committed with firearms rose 6 percent from 190 in 2011 to 201 last year. But killings with handguns dropped 3 percent.  Killings involving firearms of unknown type increased 42 percent, from 62 in 2011 to 88 in 2012.

Robberies accounted for the largest drop in gun-related crime, falling 11 percent from 2,935 offenses in 2011 to 2,508 last year. Robberies involving handguns dropped 7 percent from year to year....

Although expansion of background checks is the main goal of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, Horwitz said his group supports the tighter controls on firearms that were enacted into law in Colorado and New York after the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre in Connecticut that killed 26.

He acknowledged that those measures — aside from the background checks — will not affect the gun-related crime rate. “It won’t reduce crime,” Horwitz said. “The point is that it decreases the lethality of crime.” He was referring to so-called assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.

August 5, 2013 in Gun policy and sentencing, National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack

Saturday, June 29, 2013

The great NYC homicide decline continues

As reported in this New York Times article, the "number of homicides on record in New York City has dropped significantly during the first half of the year — to 154 from 202 in the same period last year — surprising even police officials who have long been accustomed to trumpeting declining crime rates in the city." Here is more:

Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly attributed much of the drop to a new antigang strategy meant to suppress retaliatory violence among neighborhood gangs. Police officials also credited their efforts at identifying and monitoring abusive husbands whose behavior seemed poised to turn lethal.

The recent decrease in violence is all the more striking because last year the department recorded the fewest homicides since it began a reliable method of compiling crime statistics half a century ago. The police recorded 419 murders in 2012.

“By far, it was the lowest, and guess what?” Commissioner Kelly said Friday morning before going on to announce that the number of murders this year was running about 25 percent below even that record year. “In my business, in our business, this is miraculous. These are lives that are being saved.”

The relationship between the drop in murders and the department’s controversial policy of stopping, questioning and sometimes frisking people on the street was hard to immediately divine.

On the one hand, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Mr. Kelly have cited the declining murder rate as a vindication of their policing strategies, which rely heavily on the stop-and-frisk tactic. On the other, stop-and-frisks have dropped off considerably in the last 15 months, suggesting that the drop in murders might have been a result of other factors.

In the first three months of 2012, police records indicate, there were 203,500 stops. But in the first three months of this year, the police recorded fewer than 100,000 stops.

Over the last two decades, the decline in murders in New York has been greater than in other parts of the country. (In the early 1990s, when Mr. Kelly spent a little more than a year as police commissioner, the first of his two stints in the job, the city was coping with about 2,000 murders annually.)...

Noting how the latest reduction of violence coincided with a diminishing number of street stops, some civil rights lawyers have grown more vocal in questioning not only the legality but also the effectiveness of stop-and-frisk tactics.

But police commanders point to what they say is the long half-life of the deterrent effect of stop-and-frisk, saying that criminals may decide to leave their guns at home because they have been stopped in the past, even if the odds of a stop have decreased in recent months. And the police say the decrease in violence has most likely led to a corresponding decrease in suspicious behavior, which results in fewer stops.

June 29, 2013 in Data on sentencing, National and State Crime Data | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

So far in 2013, more investment in cops means less homicides in Chicago

As reported in this interesting front-page New York Times article, headlined "Chicago Tactics Put Major Dent in Killing Trend," it seems Chicago is so far have measurable success in 2013 with a notable form of "hot spot" policing. Here is how the lengthy article begins:

A year after this city drew new attention for soaring gun violence and gang bloodshed, creating a political test for Mayor Rahm Emanuel in President Obama’s hometown, Chicago has witnessed a drop in shootings and crime. Killings this year have dipped to a level not seen since the early 1960s.

So far in 2013, Chicago homicides, which outnumbered slayings in the larger cities of New York and Los Angeles last year, are down 34 percent from the same period in 2012. As of Sunday night, 146 people had been killed in Chicago, the nation’s third-largest city — 76 fewer than in the same stretch in 2012 and 16 fewer than in 2011, a year that was among the lowest for homicides during the same period in 50 years.

In recent months, as many as 400 officers a day, working overtime, have been dispatched to just 20 small zones deemed the city’s most dangerous. The police say they are tamping down retaliatory shootings between gang factions by using a comprehensive analysis of the city’s tens of thousands of suspected gang members, the turf they claim and their rivalries. The police also are focusing on more than 400 people they have identified as having associations that make them the most likely to be involved in a murder, as a victim or an offender.

As Mr. Emanuel, who has said he intends to run for re-election, begins the second half of his first term, it is unclear whether the months of lessened violence will generate a lasting trend, particularly given a spring of rainy, chilly weather here that some experts say may have kept people off the streets and contributed to the relative calm.

Homicides have also decreased in New York, by more than 22 percent as of early this month, and in Los Angeles, by more than 17 percent.

“It’s good, but not good enough,” Mr. Emanuel said in an interview of the city’s improving homicide statistics. He added that a parent had approached him in one of the neighborhoods now saturated with police officers, saying she had started to feel comfortable allowing her child to walk to school. “That to me is the biggest, most important, most significant measure — that a mother feels comfortable and confident enough where she didn’t in past years to have her child walk to school.”

Critics question whether the city can continue to pay for the added police presence. By the end of April, $31.9 million of the $38 million set aside in the city budget for police overtime for the year had been spent, city records show.

Leaders of the police union, who describe some of the current efforts as “smoke and mirrors,” caution that the dismal statistics of 2012 are being used to paint a falsely upbeat picture of 2013, and say they doubt such intense policing efforts are financially sustainable in any major city without expanding the force.

“It seems a little soon to know whether this is a long-term trend,” said Jens Ludwig, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab. “I think everyone in Chicago hopes it is very much a trend. I wouldn’t pop the Champagne yet, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed.”

In some of the most crime-ridden neighborhoods — even those where statistics suggest clear improvement — some residents say they feel as unsafe as ever, and worry that the closing this fall of the largest number of elementary schools in recent memory may force schoolchildren to venture down blocks controlled by gangs to get to new schools.

Some related posts on modern crime rates, especially in urban areas: 

June 11, 2013 in National and State Crime Data, Offense Characteristics | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Thursday, April 11, 2013

How should we understand and react to a small uptick in San Diego's crime rate?

330317_1n11crime_1_t940The question in the title of this post is my reaction to this local article which carries the (problematic?  incomplete?) big and bold headline "County crime increased in 2012."  Here are the basics of the (important? problematic? fascinating?) local California crime story:

The decades-long trend of declining crime across San Diego County took a turn last year, when reported incidents increased by 7 percent.  Regional law enforcement officials say they are concerned, but not certain if there is cause for alarm.

“Nobody in law enforcement likes it when the crime rate goes up,” Sheriff Bill Gore said Wednesday, adding that it is cause for concern.  “Crime rates have been going down for 30 years. We didn’t think crime would go to zero.”

The 2012 numbers were released Wednesday by the San Diego Association of Governments, which each year tallies the seven major crimes tracked by the FBI: homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor theft.

The countywide figures, in rounded numbers, show that reported crimes rose from 76,000 in 2011 to 81,000 in 2012, a 7 percent increase. Violent crimes rose 7 percent, property crimes rose 6 percent.

Crime rose by 7 percent within the city of San Diego, which had 35,000 crimes in 2011 compared to 37,000 in 2012.  Incorporated cities and unincorporated county areas served by the Sheriff’s Department saw an 8 percent increase in crime, from about 16,000 to 17,000.

The local numbers seem to echo, and exceed, a national upward trend in crime figures. “Nationally, for the first six months of 2012, we saw a less than 2 percent increase in the numbers — a slight uptick,” said James Austin, president of nonprofit JFA Institute, a Washington D.C.-based criminal justice research and consulting firm.  “By region, most of that increase is produced in the Northeast and the Western region, and San Diego is part of the Western region. So that is consistent.”

With the 2012 increase in crimes, authorities around San Diego County have asked themselves “Why?” and looked for ways to slam on the brakes.  Some are ready to place at least some of the blame on the state’s public safety realignment law, also known as AB 109. “It’s too early to say,” said Cynthia Burke, director of SANDAG’s criminal justice research division. “It’s something law enforcement is tracking.”...

San Diego police Chief Bill Lansdowne pointed out that in 2011, the city had its lowest crime rate in 42 years. Then came last year’s spike.  There were more homicides, rapes, assaults, home burglaries, larcenies and car thefts.  The only crime category to drop was nonresidential burglaries.

“I believe AB 109 is starting to have an effect on our crime,” Lansdowne said.  He said lower numbers of police officers, because of budget cuts, were also a likely factor.  Gore, too, said financial constraints and staff reductions have had their effect, and he hopes to fill 250 empty deputy positions by mid-2014.

In recent months, Lansdowne said, the department has focused crime-fighting efforts on areas seeing the greatest increases. One result, he said, is that homicides are down by 36 percent so far this year, compared to the same time last year, and gang-related crime is down 86 percent.

He also is hiring more officers, and looking forward to San Diego’s share of a $1.6 million state grant to county law agencies to address AB 109 issues.  Within the county last year, Ramona saw the largest increase in crime — 28 percent — with 546 crimes reported in 2011 and 699 in 2012.  Most of the crime was burglary and theft, said Lt. James Bovet, in charge of the town’s sheriff’s station....

Bovet said he was watching closely last year as the mountain community’s crime figures edged up. “Our overall crime rate is low, but this increase was so dramatic, we had to take some quick steps,” he said. “We analyzed our crime problems and prioritized out staff with more deputies per shift. I tasked my deputies here to pretty much talk weekly to a probationer. We do more to keep track of our known criminals and parolees.”

Bovet said deputies also broke up two burglary rings late last year, making several arrests. “I can tell you, this year, we’ve seen significant decreases in crime,” Bovet said. “We’ll keep monitoring it and do what we can do.”

Assuming the data reported here (both in the text and in the chart) is accurate, the real question/story here for sentencing fans is how should we come to understand this data and react thereto.  For folks who do not like the SCOTUS Plata ruling and/or the realignment plan that it prompted, it is real easy to claim that this crime increase is the fault of activist judges and Governor Jerry Brown.  But for folks who want to defend the SCOTUS Plata ruling and/or the realignment plan that it prompted, it is also real easy to claim that local authorities failed to plan properly for realignment and/or that modern budget cuts and limited funding for police and realted social services is the primary reason crime ticked up.

Perhaps more importantly, perhaps the right "story" and reaction thereto is celebration of government improvements, not finger-pointing and government blame.  As the chart above reveals, crime rates in San Diego, even after the SCOTUS Plata ruling and the realignment plan, remain a historically low level.  And it seems that an small uptick in crime led to local police department reviewing closely whether and how they could do more effectivel crime-fighting for less money.  And, at least according to the "cops on the beat," it now appears that despite realignment AND budget cuts, now  in some areas "homicides are down by 36 percent so far this year, compared to the same time last year, and gang-related crime is down 86 percent."

In other words, despite the short-hand bad-news headline of "County crime increased in 2012," the real story is much more mixed, and a lot of different stories can be told about whether and why the local crime glass is half-full or half-empty.  Unfortunately, while I have the time and energy to think this all through and am inclined to spin this story in a positive way, I suspect the average voter and average politician instead only has time to see the headline and to (over)react to what seems like very bad news concerning both crime and punishment in California.

Some related posts on the great crime decline and modern crime rates: 

April 11, 2013 in Detailed sentencing data, National and State Crime Data, Who Sentences? | Permalink | Comments (13) | TrackBack