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March 16, 2005

Analyzing the post-Booker sentencing statistics

Because even the latest post-Booker data from the US Sentencing Commission (discussed here) still has only a relatively small sample of cases, it is still too early to make any firm judgments about the ultimate look of the post-Booker sentencing world based on the preliminary data.  (Indeed, I have heard that the USSC has not yet received data from certain key federal districts, which could skew the cumulative data.)

Nevertheless, though the jury is still out on post-Booker sentencing realities, it is not too early to be assembling key sentencing statistics and trying to identify some notable patterns.  Helpfully, law student Brian Green has done just that by creating a helpful chart setting out pre-Booker and post-Booker sentencing outcomes based on the statistics made available by the USSC. 

Brian's helpful chart can be downloaded below, and Brian highlighted in his e-mail to me the "significant increase in above [range] sentencing occurring after Booker" and his concern that commentators are not discussing "the increase in above-guideline-range sentencings."  I share Brian's concerns, although I should note my prior posts here and here which question whether due process principles may limit an increase in a post-Booker sentence based on pre-Booker conduct.

Download green_pre_and_post_booker_ussc_statistics_revised.doc

March 16, 2005 at 11:58 PM | Permalink


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