The virtues of SCOTUS selection serendipity

USA Today has this intriguing new article which spotlights that, even when it comes to Supreme Court nominations, who you know may be just as important as what you know.  And, as in comedy, timing may be more important than all other aspects of one's performance.  The piece is headlined "Timing and luck crucial for seat on high court; Connections will matter as much as credentials if spots open up during Obama's presidency," and here is how it begins:

President-elect Barack Obama is still weeks away from taking the oath of office.  The Supreme Court has no vacancies.  That hasn't stopped rising anticipation about a court opening that could shape the new president's legacy.  When it comes to such vacancies, nothing is ever certain for a president — let alone for a potential nominee.

Justice John Paul Stevens, 88 and in the sights of those watching for court retirements, might not have been appointed in 1975 if President Gerald Ford's attorney general had been someone other than Edward Levi — a Chicago friend and colleague of Stevens'.

Anthony Kennedy, named in 1988, and Samuel Alito, in 2006, won their seats after other presidential choices were rejected or withdrawn.

Sandra Day O'Connor, the first female justice, might not have been tapped in 1981 if she had not, through a fluke, met Chief Justice Warren Burger on a houseboat vacation.  The selection process, O'Connor said later, is a "classic example of being the right person in the right spot at the right time.  Simply stated, you must be lucky."

As winners and losers can attest, Supreme Court appointments — on the surface all about credentials — often come down to good timing and serendipity.  Connections matter, too, as does successfully maneuvering through the Senate, which must confirm high court nominees.  A nominee typically emerges from the consensus of top presidential advisers, so those Obama is choosing for top White House and Department of Justice jobs might, down the road, help determine a high court choice.

It has always struck me as valuable and beneficial that Supreme Court openings and nominations have often proven unpredictable and serendipitous.  Indeed, as some of my prior posts have suggested, I am concerned that the modern selection process has come to predictably favor federal circuit court judges, which I fear can have a skewing impact on both the work of SCOTUS and also the work of some federal circuit court judges.  Perhaps we should also route for more serendipitous stories emerging in the Supreme Court's not-too-distant future.

Some related (and mostly dated) SCOTUS personnel/docket posts:

• Reflections on the politics of SCOTUS and personhood of its members
• Will the next SCOTUS nominee have any criminal law background?
• Brave New Justice and sentencing issues
• Does SCOTUS need a trial judge?
• Developing a SCOTUS short list of district court judges
• Insider myopia and the diverse benefits of a short bench
• Thinking creatively about different SCOTUS short lists
• Roberts, the cert pool, and sentencing jurisprudence
• Justice Alito jumping out of the cert pool!!
• A modest(?) proposal for filling the bench from the ivory tower
• Why federal sentencing reformers must focus on the USSC and lower courts