How should we understand and react to a small uptick in San Diego's crime rate?

The question in the title of this post is my reaction to this local article which carries the (problematic?  incomplete?) big and bold headline "County crime increased in 2012."  Here are the basics of the (important? problematic? fascinating?) local California crime story:

The decades-long trend of declining crime across San Diego County took a turn last year, when reported incidents increased by 7 percent.  Regional law enforcement officials say they are concerned, but not certain if there is cause for alarm.

“Nobody in law enforcement likes it when the crime rate goes up,” Sheriff Bill Gore said Wednesday, adding that it is cause for concern.  “Crime rates have been going down for 30 years. We didn’t think crime would go to zero.”

The 2012 numbers were released Wednesday by the San Diego Association of Governments, which each year tallies the seven major crimes tracked by the FBI: homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor theft.

The countywide figures, in rounded numbers, show that reported crimes rose from 76,000 in 2011 to 81,000 in 2012, a 7 percent increase. Violent crimes rose 7 percent, property crimes rose 6 percent.

Crime rose by 7 percent within the city of San Diego, which had 35,000 crimes in 2011 compared to 37,000 in 2012.  Incorporated cities and unincorporated county areas served by the Sheriff’s Department saw an 8 percent increase in crime, from about 16,000 to 17,000.

The local numbers seem to echo, and exceed, a national upward trend in crime figures. “Nationally, for the first six months of 2012, we saw a less than 2 percent increase in the numbers — a slight uptick,” said James Austin, president of nonprofit JFA Institute, a Washington D.C.-based criminal justice research and consulting firm.  “By region, most of that increase is produced in the Northeast and the Western region, and San Diego is part of the Western region. So that is consistent.”

With the 2012 increase in crimes, authorities around San Diego County have asked themselves “Why?” and looked for ways to slam on the brakes.  Some are ready to place at least some of the blame on the state’s public safety realignment law, also known as AB 109. “It’s too early to say,” said Cynthia Burke, director of SANDAG’s criminal justice research division. “It’s something law enforcement is tracking.”...

San Diego police Chief Bill Lansdowne pointed out that in 2011, the city had its lowest crime rate in 42 years. Then came last year’s spike.  There were more homicides, rapes, assaults, home burglaries, larcenies and car thefts.  The only crime category to drop was nonresidential burglaries.

“I believe AB 109 is starting to have an effect on our crime,” Lansdowne said.  He said lower numbers of police officers, because of budget cuts, were also a likely factor.  Gore, too, said financial constraints and staff reductions have had their effect, and he hopes to fill 250 empty deputy positions by mid-2014.

In recent months, Lansdowne said, the department has focused crime-fighting efforts on areas seeing the greatest increases. One result, he said, is that homicides are down by 36 percent so far this year, compared to the same time last year, and gang-related crime is down 86 percent.

He also is hiring more officers, and looking forward to San Diego’s share of a $1.6 million state grant to county law agencies to address AB 109 issues.  Within the county last year, Ramona saw the largest increase in crime — 28 percent — with 546 crimes reported in 2011 and 699 in 2012.  Most of the crime was burglary and theft, said Lt. James Bovet, in charge of the town’s sheriff’s station....

Bovet said he was watching closely last year as the mountain community’s crime figures edged up. “Our overall crime rate is low, but this increase was so dramatic, we had to take some quick steps,” he said. “We analyzed our crime problems and prioritized out staff with more deputies per shift. I tasked my deputies here to pretty much talk weekly to a probationer. We do more to keep track of our known criminals and parolees.”

Bovet said deputies also broke up two burglary rings late last year, making several arrests. “I can tell you, this year, we’ve seen significant decreases in crime,” Bovet said. “We’ll keep monitoring it and do what we can do.”

Assuming the data reported here (both in the text and in the chart) is accurate, the real question/story here for sentencing fans is how should we come to understand this data and react thereto.  For folks who do not like the SCOTUS Plata ruling and/or the realignment plan that it prompted, it is real easy to claim that this crime increase is the fault of activist judges and Governor Jerry Brown.  But for folks who want to defend the SCOTUS Plata ruling and/or the realignment plan that it prompted, it is also real easy to claim that local authorities failed to plan properly for realignment and/or that modern budget cuts and limited funding for police and realted social services is the primary reason crime ticked up.

Perhaps more importantly, perhaps the right "story" and reaction thereto is celebration of government improvements, not finger-pointing and government blame.  As the chart above reveals, crime rates in San Diego, even after the SCOTUS Plata ruling and the realignment plan, remain a historically low level.  And it seems that an small uptick in crime led to local police department reviewing closely whether and how they could do more effectivel crime-fighting for less money.  And, at least according to the "cops on the beat," it now appears that despite realignment AND budget cuts, now  in some areas "homicides are down by 36 percent so far this year, compared to the same time last year, and gang-related crime is down 86 percent."

In other words, despite the short-hand bad-news headline of "County crime increased in 2012," the real story is much more mixed, and a lot of different stories can be told about whether and why the local crime glass is half-full or half-empty.  Unfortunately, while I have the time and energy to think this all through and am inclined to spin this story in a positive way, I suspect the average voter and average politician instead only has time to see the headline and to (over)react to what seems like very bad news concerning both crime and punishment in California.

Some related posts on the great crime decline and modern crime rates: 

• Is the great US crime decline now finally over?: BJS reports crime up in 2011
• FBI reports crime was down yet again in 2011 (though BJS said it was up)
• Despite death penalty's practical demise and a prisoner release order, California crime hit record low in 2010
• Should we thank unleaded gas and the EPA for the great modern crime decline?
• Is there really a simple explanation for record-low homicide rate in NYC (or the increase in Chicago)?
• Still more (and still puzzling) crime rate declines reported by FBI
• Effective Washington Post commentary talks up great (and still puzzling) crime decline
• Amazingly great new FBI data: crime down yet again in start of 2011!
• Still more great news and data on the latest crime rates in the United States
• Remarkable drop in US violent crimes rates in 2010 according to latest BJS data
• Wonderfully puzzling violent crime rate continue to decline (despite NFL lockout)
• Some speculations about the great crime decline in Florida