The latest SCOTUS nomination betting odds

I am always intrigued by betting markets, and I suppose these markets have become more of a Supreme Court story in the wake of the Court's work earlier this Term in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association to allow states to move forward with sports betting.  And since I reported here last week on the early betting lines on Prez Trump's pick to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, I figured I would do this update post featuring this new article from The Action Network with the headline "Updated Odds for Next Supreme Court Justice: Clear Three-Person Race."  Here is some of its content:

Offshore sportsbooks across the market didn’t take long to post odds for Kennedy’s replacement. At Bovada, Brett Kavanaugh opened as the favorite at +175. Kavanaugh is a former White House lawyer for George W. Bush who was confirmed to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington in 2006....

[E]arly sharp action came down on Amy Coney Barrett, a 46-year-old Notre Dame Law School alum and staunch pro-life advocate. Barrett was nominated by Trump to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and confirmed in 2017. Since opening, her odds moved from +450 to +155. She is now the favorite.

Kavanaugh dipped from +175 to +275, but late sharp money has brought him back to +180, putting him a relative dead-heat with Barrett.

Right on their heels is Kethledge. Over the past week, he’s quietly surged from +1000 to +350, giving him the third-best odds.

Other notable movement: Larsen has improved from +1500 to +800, keeping her in striking distance. Thapar has dipped from +500 to +900. Hardiman has fallen like a rock from +350 to +1200.

At one point it looked like Mike Lee (+1500 to +900) was on the rise, but he’s since fallen back to +2000. Pryor, Grant, Willett, Clement and Sykes have all ballooned to +5000, so you can likely cross them off the list....

Interesting to note: Trump said he wants to nominate someone to serve 40 to 45 years, which means he’s targeting a younger justice. And he’s also considering two women. Current ages of the top five candidates: Barrett 46, Kavanaugh 53, Kethledge 51, Larsen 49, Thapar 49.

At the political betting side PredictIt, Kavanaugh is the clear favorite as of July 5th. Barrett has been falling. Kethledge is an interesting value play. He’s the second most traded candidate and currently sits at +350 at Bovada.

Is Kavanaugh the play? Are you still backing Barrett even though she’s falling at PredictIt? Is Kethledge the dark horse? Is Larsen an under-the-radar value pick? Are there any other candidates being overlooked?

In my prior post, I suggested that Amy Coney Barrett at +450 and Amul Thapar at +500 would be good value plays. But a bet on Judge Barrett is now not such a good payoff, while Judge Thapar seems to me now an even better bet (though I think the "smart" money should still be on Kavanaugh).

Once we find out whom Prez Trump taps, I will turn from guessing about his selection to guessing about how his selection might approach sentencing and other criminal justices issues on the Supreme Court.  But, as always, I welcome early reader input on which of the possibilities might be seen as the most or least likely to follow Justice Kennedy's (unpredictable?) path on criminal justice issues.

Prior posts on Justice Kennedy's retirement and the possible impact of his replacement:

• Justice Anthony Kennedy has announced his retirement ... which means a lot for the future of sentencing jurisprudence and so much more 
• "Betting Odds for Next Supreme Court Justice: Who Will Replace Anthony Kennedy?"
• Just a few Justice Kennedy sentencing jurisprudence highlights
• « Reviewing Justice Kennedy’s contributions to sentencing and corrections reform (in the form of a special FSR issue)
• With Justice Kennedy now retiring and precedents being reversed, is it time for marijuana advocates to urge SCOTUS to reconsider Raich?
• A quick look at how Justice Kennedy's retirement might impact capital punishment jurisdrudence
• With Justice Kennedy retiring, overturning Harmelin should become a focal point for criminal justice reformers
• Might Justice Kennedy's retirement lead to defendants having stronger Sixth Amendment rights under Apprendi and Blakely?