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November 7, 2018

Method matters: initial thoughts about Issue 1's big loss in Ohio

Regular readers know I had been following closely the debate over the interesting and intricate drug sentencing and prison reform initiative on the November 2018 ballot in Ohio known as Issue 1.  A variety of factors had led me to expect that Issue 1 would lose, but surprisingly strong polling and all the "blue wave" talk had me thinking it might have a shot.   I certainly did not expect that it would get crushed, going down to defeat 63.5% to 36.5%. 

Issue 1's huge 27%-point loss is startling given that Ohio's Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election by 6% points and its Democratic Governor candidate Richard Cordray, who endorsed Issue 1, lost by only 4% points.  This means that a huge number of progressively minded voters decided to vote for liberal candidates and against Issue 1.  (A county-level analysis highlights this reality in various ways: e.g., in Lucas County (where Toledo is located), Senator Brown prevailed by 33% points, but Issue 1 still lost that county by 4% points.)

Issue 1's huge 27%-point loss is even more startling given that a somewhat similar ballot initiative in 2016 passed in Oklahoma with flying colors, winning by 16% points with a margin of 58% to 42%.  Given that Oklahoma is a seemingly much "redder" state than Ohio and that 2016 was seemingly a somewhat "redder" election than 2018, the 43% difference in outcomes in these initiatives leads me to the (obvious?) conclusion that just how a criminal justice reform is pursued through a ballot initiative can make a VERY big difference.

Of particular significance, it seems, is both the form of the initiative and who is part of the reform team.  In Oklahoma, the 2016 initiative sought a fairly modest statutory change; in Ohio, the 2018 initiative pursued a fairly aggressive set of reforms that would be locked into the state constitution.  Perhaps even more importantly, legislative "insiders" and other state GOP leaders were integrally involved in drafting and getting the Oklahoma initiative on the ballot in 2016.  The same type of insiders seemingly had no role in the Ohio campaign, and thus nearly all of them -- most notably, all the GOP candidates and many prominent judges, prosecutors and police -- actively campaigned against Issue 1.

I am hopeful state-level reformers in Ohio and elsewhere will continue to see the potential that direct democracy provides.  But reformer can and should learn from losses as well as victories, and there seems to be a lot to learn after a big loss in Ohio.

November 7, 2018 at 09:04 AM | Permalink

Comments

I hope that the reformers have learned that not everyone agrees with them.

Posted by: John Neff | Nov 7, 2018 10:28:26 AM

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