"COVID-19 Model Finds Nearly 100,000 More Deaths Than Current Estimates, Due to Failures to Reduce Jails"

The title of this post is the title of this new ACLU report, and here are some excerpts from the first few pages of the intricate 12-page document:

Models projecting total U.S. fatalities to be under 100,000 may be underestimating deaths by almost another 100,000 if we continue to operate jails as usual, based on a new epidemiological study completed in partnership between academic researchers and ACLU Analytics.  That is, deaths could be double the current projections due to the omission of jails from most public models.  Numbers used by the Trump administration largely fail to consider several factors that will explosively increase the loss of life unless drastic reforms are adopted to reduce the nation’s jail populations....

As a result of the constant movement between jails and the broader community, our jails will act as vectors for the COVID-19 pandemic in our communities.  They will become veritable volcanoes for the spread of the virus.  The spread of COVID-19 from jails into the broader community will occur along two vectors that are ignored in typical models:

1. Churn of the jail population — individuals are arrested, sent to jail, potentially exposed to COVID-19, released on their own recognizance, post bail, or are adjudicated not guilty and are subsequently released. Upon release, the virus will spread through their families and communities unless the individual is quarantined.

2. Jail staff — staff come to work each day and are exposed to COVID-19, then return home and infect their families and communities.  This vector applies to jails, prisons, and detention centers.  There are ~420,000 people who work in jails and prisons in the U.S.

Unfortunately, the radical approaches adopted in broader society to reduce other high-density transmission hubs — the closure of schools, the closure of non-essential businesses, and the enactment of stay-at-home orders — have not been emulated with regard to our jails.  Some states have begun to see a reduction in their jail populations, such as Colorado, where there has been a 31 percent reduction, potentially saving ~1,100 lives (25% of projected deaths in the state).  However, all states need to do more, and most states have failed to take any steps to stem the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in jails and the broader community.