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April 26, 2020

Reviewing some more national and local accounts of (mostly declining) crime rates during a pandemic

In this post last week, I complained about a Bloomberg headline blaring that "Some Crimes Are Spiking in America’s Major Cities," even though the bulk of the data reviewed in the article detail that crime was down considerably in a number of cities.   Today I can flag this recent CBS News piece that reviews mostly positive crime news with a very positive heading "Miami goes seven weeks without a homicide for first time since 1957."  Here are excerpts:

From February 17 until April 12 of this year — a total of seven weeks and six days — Miami had no reported homicides, according to police. In 1957, the city went 9 weeks and 3 days without any reported homicides. In 1960, a period of 6 weeks and 5 days passed without a homicide.  According to the Miami police, other crimes have also decreased.  The department said the decrease has extended to domestic violence calls.  But Miami Police Chief Jorge Colina told The New York Times he is concerned incidents of domestic violence and child abuse may be underreported during the order. 

Crime is also down in Baltimore since Maryland issued its own stay-at-home order, CBS Baltimore reports. Although criminal incidents in the city still continue on a daily basis, assault, carjacking, robbery and shootings have all gone down since the order was implemented.  When compared to the same time last year, common assaults in Baltimore went down 34%, aggravated assaults went down 17%, and shootings dropped by 8%.

Los Angeles similarly reported that violent crime and property crimes are down compared to last year, according to CBS Los Angeles.  Within a 9.73% drop in violent crime overall, homicides in particular were down 21%.

The same, unfortunately, cannot be said of Chicago. Despite a stay-at-home order in the city, robberies and shootings were up in the last week, according to CBS Chicago.  Police responded to 19 shootings Tuesday night, six of which were homicides.  That means shootings were up 42% from the same week last year, according to data analyzed by the station.  "We're fighting the pandemic, and we're fighting the epidemic," said Tony Raggs with the Alliance of Local Service Organizations.  "The epidemic being violence."

In Los Angeles, the drop in violent crime has been marred by an increase in domestic violence calls.  According to Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva, deputies responded to about 8% more domestic violence calls between mid-March and mid-April, when compared to last year.

A quick search of headlines via Google news produces similar crime tales, mostly positive but not entirely, from places other than big cities.  Here is a sampling:

From upstate Florida: "Coronavirus: Crime in Volusia, Flagler and St. Johns edges down during quarantine"

From central Kentucky: "Increase in violence in Louisville another deadly side effect of COVID-19"

From downstate Missouri: "Crime rates see slight dip during COVID-19 quarantine: Vehicles continue to be rifled for cash, valuables"

From upstate New York: "Shutdown leads to decrease in crime"

From central Rhode Island: "Violent crime in Providence down 53% during pandemic"

From eastern Texas: "Crime rates in Texarkana are steady due to COVID-19"

From central Wisconsin: "Crime Trends Change During COVID-19 Restrictions"

Prior related posts:

April 26, 2020 at 01:55 PM | Permalink


To better understand why crime has increased in some cities and decreased in other cities during the Coronavirus pandemic, you might want to more closely examine the underlying demographics of those cities. For example, Louisville is 23%+ black, whereas blacks up only 14% of the population of America as a whole. Without being racist, the numbers indicate that much of that increased violence in Louisville comes from the black community, now from the rest of the city's people. And in Kentucky, blacks are 2.5 times more likely to die of CV-19, compared to their percentage of the state's population.

Posted by: James Gormley | Apr 26, 2020 10:48:09 PM

James, your comment does not logically follow. Cities like Louisville have roughly the same racial makeup as they did last year, against which current rates are measured. Whether the black population is a small or large percentage, your theory would mean that rates are constant in any city, year to year, pandemic or not. This, clearly, is not the case. In Miami, where black people are about 18% of the population, there have been no homicides in seven weeks. Baltimore is over 60% black (ore than twice the percentage of Louisville) and crime has plummeted. Jeffrey O.

Posted by: Jeffrey O. | Apr 27, 2020 12:53:25 PM

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