What can and should we really learn from crime data in the midst of a pandemic and lockdowns?

The question in the title of this post is prompted by two new articles spotlighting declines in crime amidst our crazy times: from The Hill, "Crime rates drop across the nation amid coronavirus"; from USA Today, "Crime rates plummet amid the coronavirus pandemic, but not everyone is safer in their home."  Here are some excerpts from this second piece:

Crime rates plunged in cities and counties across the U.S. over the second half of March as the coronavirus pandemic drove millions of residents to stay inside their homes.  Police logged dramatically fewer calls for service, crime incidents and arrests in the last two weeks of March than each of the previous six weeks, a USA TODAY analysis of crime data published by 53 law enforcement agencies in two dozen states found.  The analysis is among the largest studies measuring the impact of the coronavirus on crime and policing.

Massive drops in traffic and person stops — as much as 92% in some jurisdictions — helped drive sharp declines in drug offenses and DUIs.  Thefts and residential burglaries decreased with fewer stores open and homes unoccupied, and some agencies logged fewer assaults and robberies. Bookings into each of nearly two dozen county jails monitored by the news organization fell by at least a quarter since February.

At the same time, calls for domestic disturbances and violence surged by between 10% and 30% among many police agencies that contributed data. Several also saw upticks in public nuisance complaints such as loud noise from parties.  The Baltimore Police Department, for example, received 362 loud music complaints in the last two weeks of March, nearly matching its total for all of February.

The trends reflect both a purposeful reduction in police activity and officer-initiated stops and the impact of stay-at-home orders that have closed huge swaths of Main Street and pushed people into their homes and out of traditional crime hotspots, such as bars, clubs and social events....

The study compared weekly totals between Feb. 2 and March 28.  Reporters analyzed daily calls for service and incident data published by 30 local police and sheriff’s agencies that range from those covering big cities like Dallas to small communities like St. John, Indiana.  Analysis of arrests drew from inmate logs at nearly two dozen county jails in six states, which local USA TODAY Network newspapers already track daily.

Many police departments say they are intentionally arresting fewer people to avoid the potential spread of coronavirus in jails.  Police in Delray Beach, Florida, are reducing proactive policing, such as drug busts.  In nearby Gainesville, Florida, officers are increasingly issuing summons instead of making arrests for minor offenses, Police chief inspector Jorge Campos said. “It’s not that we’re not enforcing (the law),” Campos said.  “It’s that we’re finding alternative ways of dealing with the issue rather than make physical arrests.”...

In the counties reviewed by USA TODAY, the average week included about 300 DUI bookings.  Now, it’s at about 100.  Senior citizens arrests are about a sixth of what they were in February.  Several police departments also recorded significant drops in drug, narcotics and alcohol crimes — some of the most common ways people land in jail in America, according to FBI data.  Such incidents over the second half of March fell 76% in Denver; 87% in Providence, Rhode Island; and 45% in Seattle, the epicenter of the nation’s first major coronavirus outbreak, data shows.

Drug charges often result from traffic stops....  But such stops have ground to a near halt in some regions across the country in the last two weeks.  In Cincinnati, police logged an average of 384 traffic stops per week before mid-March but 39 per day after — a 90% drop.  In Santa Monica, California, traffic stops fell from 182 a week to 14.  They fell 79% in Baltimore and 46% in Virginia Beach, Virginia.

In many regions, the traffic-stop declines dovetailed with fewer DUI incidents, which likely tanked after bars closed, Seattle police spokesman Patrick Michaud said.  Police in Virginia Beach, Montgomery County and Seattle each recorded fewer than half as many DUIs in the second half of March compared to previous weeks on average.  “There are just less crimes of opportunity when the opportunity all but disappears because everyone is spending time indoors,” said Michaud, adding that residential burglaries also have decreased in Seattle in recent weeks.

This article highlights how changes in citizen behavior (driven in part by shutdowns) are part of this new crime data story, but it also reveals how changes in police behavior also account for new criminal justice realities. I am hopeful (but not really optimistic) that the positive aspects of changes in both citizen and police behavior might persist after the pandemic passes.

Prior related post:

• Rounding up some tales of crime amidst COVID lockdowns