TRAC data report provides snapshot into impact of COVID-19 on referrals for federal criminal prosecution

The Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) has this great new online report under the title "How Is Covid-19 Impacting Federal Criminal Enforcement?". The figures in the report are worth checking out by clicking through, but this introductory text highlights the main story:

Law enforcement agencies across the country have been referring fewer criminal cases to federal prosecutors since the coronavirus pandemic began.  While weekly referrals for federal prosecution during February and the first half of March averaged around 4,500 per week, referrals fell to only 1,800 during the last week of March.  The Trump administration issued new guidance on Sunday evening, March 15, allowing some federal employees to work from home.  Previously, only those at high risk of health problems could telework.

Figure 1 plots the number of referrals recorded as received by these federal prosecutors day-by-day during the first six months of FY 2020 (October 2019 - March 2020). Starting in mid-March the numbers decline sharply. (As the plot shows, normally few referrals are recorded during Saturday or Sunday producing a predicable weekly cycle in the plot. A decline during the holidays over Christmas is also evident.)

Each weekday, U.S. Attorney offices from around the country typically receive hundreds of referrals.  Most of these came from federal investigative agencies.  Some originate from local and state law enforcement.  Each referral is typically assigned to an assistant U.S. attorney who determines whether or not to charge the suspect with committing one or more federal crimes.

I am inclined to guess that this 60% decline in federal prosecutions persisted through April, and that into May there might have started to be a rebound. Whatever the particulars, these TRAC data provide one accounting of how the cornoavirus and lockdowns have dramatically impacts the usual flow of cases into the federal criminal justice system.  Lockdown realities have surely disrupted this flow at other junctures (e.g., indictments, trials/pleas, sentencings), and I suspect it will be many months (maybe even years) before we can take full stock of COVID shock.