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June 23, 2020

Intriguing (and discouraging?) criminal justice elements in new polling mostly about policing reform

06_23_2020_Chart3This new release, headlined "Widespread Desire for Policing and Criminal Justice Reform," reports on a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll that is mostly about policing reforms but includes a few notable criminal justice questions.  Here are excerpts about the poll, with my emphasis on its criminal justice elements:

Large majorities of the public support the implementation of policies aimed at reducing police violence, but few back a reduction in the funding for law enforcement.  Most Americans say the country’s criminal justice is in need of serious transformation, and police officers who kill or injure civilians are treated too leniently by the courts.

In the national AP-NORC survey, which was conducted as protests spread across the country in response to the killing of George Floyd, a handcuffed Black man who died after a white police officer pressed his knee into Floyd’s neck for several minutes, nearly half regard police violence to be very serious problem.

The public agrees that several reforms could help prevent police violence against civilians.  Americans, regardless of race, strongly support policies that include body cameras, holding police accountable for excessive force and racially biased policing, and creating criteria for the use of force.  There is little support for reducing funding for law enforcement.

There is majority support in both parties for a number of reforms.  However, Democrats are more likely than independents and Republicans to support all the guidelines to prevent police violence included in the survey.  The biggest partisan gaps arise when it comes to limiting the use of military equipment, reducing funding for agencies, and limiting the criminal justice system’s focus on policing and prosecuting low level offenses.

More than two-thirds of the public say that criminal justice system needs either major changes or a complete overhaul.  Black Americans are more likely than white Americans to say the system needs a complete transformation.  Views differ based on partisanship with 44% of Democrats saying the system needs a complete change while just 27% of independents, and 12% of Republicans say the same.

Most Americans — including a majority of white and Black adults — believe that police officers who cause injury or death in the course of their job are treated too leniently by the justice system.  In 2015, just 41% of all adults and 32% of white Americans said the same.

Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans to say police are treated too leniently by the justice system (85% vs. 43%).

The nationwide poll was conducted June 11-15, 2020 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,310 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/-3.7 percentage points.  In addition, Black adults were sampled at a higher rate than their proportion of the population for reasons of analysis. The overall margin of sampling error for the 377 completed interviews with Black respondents is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

I suppose I should take a "glass-half-full" view on this poll and be encouraged that so many Americans seem to be in favor of policing and criminal justice reforms.  But I cannot help but see a lot of "glass-half-empty" elements such as the fact that roughly two-thirds of Republicans and Independents oppose "reducing the criminal justice system’s focus on policing and prosecuting low level offenses."  In the wake of all the protests about lock-down orders and their enforcement, not to mention significant support for marijuana reforms, I would have expected and hoped support for this kind of reform to be stronger.  Similarly, with all of Prez Trump's attacks on the FBI and high-profile prosecutions of his various associates, I would have hoped for a larger number of Republicans to say our criminal justice system needs a complete overhaul.

Long story short, I think anyone and everyone advocating for any kinds of criminal justice reforms must not lose sight of the power of status quo biases, especially for those who are powerful and who do not bear the brunt of criminal justice biases.  This poll suggests we may have a unique opportunity for unique reforms in the coming weeks and months and years, but it also should be a reminder that reforms are always an uphill battle.

June 23, 2020 at 09:31 AM | Permalink

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