Federal prison population, per BOP report of "Total Federal Inmates," now down to 156,415

Regular readers may have noticed that this month I stopped doing my regular Thursday morning updates on COVID-era changes in the federal prison population based on the federal Bureau of Prisons' weekly updated "Total Federal Inmates" numbers. I did because the numbers through the end of July suggested that the federal prison population was getting closer to flattening out with weekly declines that were becoming considerably lower than in previous months. But I will still post episodically on this topic because the BOP population is still declining and this story still remains significant.

As I have noted before via this post, according to BOP's reporting, most weeks through April the federal prison population shrunk around or over 1,000 persons per week; through May, as detailed here, the pace of weekly decline increased to an average of around 1,200 fewer reported prisoners; through June, as detailed here, declines continued at a slightly reduced rate of about 950 fewer persons reported in all federal facilities on average per week.  But by the tail end of July, as noted here, weekly reported population declines were trending under 500.

My post on July 30 noted that the federal population was at a another new historic low with the new BOP reported "Total Federal Inmates" at 157,862.  Three weeks later we have hit another new historic low,and we seem to keeping the pacing at reductions of just under 500 per week, as the new BOP numbers at this webpage report "Total Federal Inmates" at 156,415. I still suspect that more COVID-delayed sentencings and stalled federal prison transfers continued to account for these declines; but the lack of any real-time sentencing data from the US Sentencing Commission and the opaque nature of BOP data make it hard to be sure just what the reported population numbers represent. 

I am hopeful that we will eventually get some sentencing data from the USSC that can help us better understand these prison data, but now nearly six months into the pandemic the USSC still seems in no rush to provide any inkling of how the federal criminal sentencing process has been impacted. Grrr.

A few of many prior related posts:

• Federal prison population, thanks in part to the FIRST STEP Act, hits lowest level in over 15 years (from July 2019)
• Federal prison population, due seemingly to COVID responses, hits another modern low (which is still very high) (from April 2020)
• Federal prison population drops below 170,000 for first time in nearly two decades (from May 2020)
• As federal prison population continues remarkable decline, can anyone predict what might be a new normal? (from May 2020)
• "Total Federal Inmates," as reported by BOP, drops below 165,000 (from June 2020)
• Federal prison population, per BOP report of "Total Federal Inmates," drops below 160,000 (from early July 2020)
• Federal prison population, per BOP reporting, now down to 157,862 (from late July 2020)