BOP reported federal prison population ticks up for first time in COVID era

Regular readers know that I have been closely watching COVID-era changes in the federal prison population because of dramatic declines in the federal Bureau of Prisons' weekly updated "Total Federal Inmates" numbers.  At the start if the COVID era, the reported federal prison population was around 175,000.  But, as I highlighted in a series of prior posts, according to BOP's reporting, most weeks through much of the spring the federal prison population shrunk around or over 1,000 persons per week.  Into and through the summer months, weekly declines continued but at a rate closer to about 500.  As of last week, as reported in this post, the BOP reported "Total Federal Inmates" was down to 155,483. 

Today, on the cusp of fall 2020, the new BOP numbers at this webpage report "Total Federal Inmates" at 155,741.  In other words, there is reason to wonder whether we may have hit "the bottom" as to COVID era federal population declines, as this week we see an increase in the reported population of just ver 250 persons.  

I have wondered repeatedly in these posts whether COVID-delayed sentencings and stalled federal prison transfers may account for most of these declines.  But a persistent lack of any real-time sentencing data from the US Sentencing Commission and the opaque nature of BOP data make it hard for me to be sure just what these reported population numbers represent.  As I have said before, I am hopeful we may eventually get some timely sentencing data from the USSC.  But we are now well over six months into the pandemic, and the USSC still seems in no rush to provide any inkling of how the federal criminal sentencing process has been impacted by and adjusting to the COVID era.

A few of many prior related posts:

• Federal prison population, thanks in part to the FIRST STEP Act, hits lowest level in over 15 years (from July 2019)
• Federal prison population, due seemingly to COVID responses, hits another modern low (which is still very high) (from April 2020)
• Federal prison population drops below 170,000 for first time in nearly two decades (from May 2020)
• As federal prison population continues remarkable decline, can anyone predict what might be a new normal? (from May 2020)
• "Total Federal Inmates," as reported by BOP, drops below 165,000 (from June 2020)
• Federal prison population, per BOP report of "Total Federal Inmates," drops below 160,000 (from early July 2020)
• Federal prison population, per BOP reporting, now down to 157,862 (from late July 2020)
• Federal prison population, per BOP report of "Total Federal Inmates," now down to 156,415 (from mid Aug 2020)
• Federal prison population now down to 155,483 according to BOP reporting (from Sept 10, 2020)