With a new Attorney General now in place, should we expect to see any changes in the federal prison population?

Regular readers know that I have been following federal prison population data quite closely during the COVID era, giving particular attention to the numbers that the federal Bureau of Prisons updates weekly at this webpage.  But I have not blogged on this topic in nearly two months because, after a tumultuous 2020, there has been a notable stability in BOP reports of "Total Federal Inmates" during the Biden era.  As noted here, the day after Prez Biden's inauguration, BOP reported a total population of 151,646; as of March 11, 2021, this population stands at 151,703. 

Back in 2017, when Prez Trump was elected and Jeff Sessions took over as Attorney General and implemented new charging and sentencing policies for federal prosecutors, there was understandable concern (see articles here and here) that reductions in the federal prison population that took place during Prez Obama's second term would get reversed.  Indeed, Trump's Justice Department back in 2017, as noted here, was forecasting and budgeting for federal prison population increases.  But, due to a varety of factors, most notably the passage of the FIRST STEP Act and especially the COVID pandemic, the federal prison population actually dropped dramatically during in Trump era.  Specifically the federal prison population decreased by nearly 38,000 persons during Prez Trump's term (nearly 20%), which highlights that the plans, policies and practices of any Attorney General can be eclipsed by other factors impacting the federal prison population.

Against this backdrop, I am wondering (a) if new Attorney General Merrick Garland is going to implement policies and practices that consciously seeks to continue shrinking the federal prison population, and (b) whether we will see any real changes in the federal prison population anytime soon.  In this January post, I predicted the federal prison population would be relatively steady to start the Biden era because it could take months before we see any major DOJ policy changes and many more months before any big policy changes start impacting the federal prison population. 

A few recent prior related posts:

• Anyone bold enough to make predictions about the federal prison population — which is now at 151,646 according to BOP? 
• Federal prison population closes out 2020 at new modern low of 152,184 according to BOP