US Sentencing Commission releases FY 2021 fourth quarter sentencing data showing growth in cases and in average sentence severity

US Sentencing Commission yesterday published here its latest quarterly data report which is described as a "4th Quarter Release, Preliminary Fiscal Year 2021 Data Through September 30, 2021." These new data provide another official accounting of how COVID realities appear to be continuing to reduce the usual total number of federal sentences imposed, though in this latest quarter we are seeing a return almost to pre-pandemic norms for most offense categories other than immigration cases.

Specifically, as reflected in Figure 2, in pre-pandemic years, quarterly cases sentenced generally averaged around 17,000 to 19,000. But in the three quarters closing out 2020, amid the worst early periods of the pandemic, there were only between about 12,000 and 13,000 cases being sentenced each quarter.  In the most recent quarter here reported, running from July 1 to September 30, 2021, it appears that more than 15,000 cases were sentenced in federal court.  Figure 2 also shows that, relative to pre-pandemic trends, the only major caseload decline now is in the total number of immigration cases sentenced while the other big federal case categories — Drug Trafficking, Firearms and Economic Offenses — now have the total number of cases sentenced in recent quarters not off that much from recent historical norms.

Consistent with what I have noted in prior post about pandemic era USSC data, these data continue to show a notable jump in the percentage of below-guideline variances granted in the last five quarters (as detailed in Figures 3 and 4).  But I suspect these data may reflect the altered mix of cases now that the number of immigration cases being sentenced has declined dramatically rather than significantly different behaviors by sentencing judges.  And, notably, Figure 5 in this data run reveals that the "Average Guideline Minimum" as well as the "Average Sentence" were higher in this last quarter than in recent history, with a particularly notable uptick in these measures of average sentence severity over the last two quarters.

A few prior recent related post:

• US Sentencing Commission releases FY 2021 first quarter sentencing data showing COVID's continued impact on federal sentencings (and USSC data) 
• US Sentencing Commission releases FY 2021 third quarter sentencing data showing COVID's continued (but reduced) impact on federal sentencings