Senator Cotton leans into political foolishness rather than serious policy issues in latest "jailbreak" commentary

Senator Tom Cotton is always eager to provide a "tough-and-tougher" perspective on criminal justice issues, and he has long responded to advocacy against mass incarceration by claiming that the US actually has an "under-incarceration problem."  Some time ago, I was described at least some of his takes on criminal justice issues as at least somewhat thoughtful, but more recently it seems Senator Cotton has been content to make op-ed claims which are quite suspect and have been described as "horrifically dishonest" and are disconnected from political and social reality.  His latest commentary, published here today at Fox News, sets the bar especially low to start 2022 because he turns serious criminal justice policy issues into political posturing.  Here are some key parts of this piece (with a few phrases highlighted for follow-up commentary): 

In 2020, our nation’s state and federal prison populations plummeted 15% to the lowest levels since 1992 — at the same time, murders skyrocketed nearly 30% to the highest level since 1998.  By the middle of last year, local jail populations similarly shrank by an astonishing 25%.  In raw numbers, state and federal authorities reduced their prison populations by 214,000 in 2020 and local authorities reduced their jail populations by 185,000 compared to 2019.  This is the worst jailbreak in American history and was committed in broad daylight.  Our nation has paid the price.

So-called "coronavirus protocols" caused most of these reductions.  Last year, the federal government sent thousands of inmates home in response to the pandemic.  Rikers Island in New York City released 1,500 criminals, and Chicago’s largest prison released a quarter of its inmates.

Democrat-run states also released convicted murderers and an untold number of violent felons in the name of "public health."  In Virginia, an accused rapist murdered his accuser.  In Florida, a documented gang member murdered a 28-year-old.  In my home state of Arkansas, a career criminal murdered a police officer.  What did these murderers have in common?  They had all been released early from jail due to concerns about coronavirus....

The rash of early releases is not the entire story.  The drop in incarceration in 2020 was also fueled by a shocking 40% nationwide decline in the admission of newly sentenced criminals — which indicates a massive decrease in prosecutions.  In New York, there was an even starker 60% drop in admission of newly sentenced criminals.  In California, there was a 66% drop, the biggest decline of any state.  This concentrated drop in prosecutions is virtually unexplainable, except by the proliferation of progressive "Soros prosecutors" and a shrinking willingness to hold the guilty accountable.

There were certainly plenty of crimes to prosecute last year when over 100,000 Americans died from homicide and drug overdoses and the nation was wracked with the worst rioting in a generation. Initial data also shows that California experienced a 31% increase in murders, while New York experienced a 142% increase in gang killings and a 42% increase in murders overall.... This under-incarceration crisis must end.

All serious people should be taking seriously how the COVID pandemic has been impacting US crime rates, criminal justice case processing, and prison and jail populations. But talking about these issues in terms of "Democrat-run states" and "the proliferation of progressive Soros prosecutors" is so foolish simply in light of the data. 

For starters, it is notable and amusing that, right after complaining about releases in "Democrat-run states," Senator Cotton then gives examples of crimes in GOP-run states of Arkansas and Florida.  More systematically, the uptick in murders in 2020 was a nationwide phenomenon as this Pew report highlights, and many GOP states had the highest uptick in murder rates: "At least eight states saw their murder rates rise by 40% or more last year, with the largest percentage increases in Montana (+84%), South Dakota (+81%), Delaware (+62%) and Kentucky (+61%), according to the CDC."  (Indeed, this US News piece reveals that the top seven states in terms of homicide rates in 2020 were all "red" states.)

Turning toward prison populations and drops in prosecutions, this dynamic is again not an issue involving only "blue" states and "progressive Soros prosecutors."  Senator Cotton appears to be cherry picking some numbers from this recent BJS report titled "Prisoners in 2020 – Statistical Tables."  But Figure 3 of that report shows that the top four jurisdictions with biggest 2020 reductions in prison population were, in order, California, the federal system, Texas and Florida.  In 2020, three of those four jurisdictions were under GOP control.  Similarly, though I do not recall Prez Trump appointing any "progressive Soros prosecutors," the data show that the federal system saw a 40% decline in prison admissions; "red" states ranging from Florida to Idaho to Indiana to Kentucky to Kansas to South Carolina all saw above-national-average declines in the admission of sentenced prisoners.

Political foolishness aside, if Senator Cotton really wants to get serious about pandemic era crime and punishment issues, why is he not seriously trying to help develop more and deeper data about all these important and complicated trends and others.  Exactly what types of offenders have been released during pandemic?  What types of cases were prosecuted less in 2020?  Have these trends continued through 2021?  We have decent (but not great) homicide data from local police departments, but we need much better and richer data.  Notably, in 2022, Senator Cotton still references "Initial data" from 2020 on homicides.  Is this really the best we can do at the start of 2022?  And how about better data on other crimes? 

Moreover, despite two more big COVID waves in 2021, we have very little data in real-time about the national prison population (this VERA accounting as of March 2021 is the last data I have seen).  And reports suggest declines in prison populations have slowed or stopped, while jail populations have risen through 2021.  Notably, we do have real time data from the federal BOP revealing that there are now "157,654 Total Federal Inmates," which is over 6000 more federal prisoners compared to the first full day of the Biden Administration when BOP reported  151,646.  Since the federal prison population went down nearly 38,000 persons(!) under Prez Trump, and now has gone up over 6,000 persons during the first year of the Biden Administration, maybe Senator Cotton ought to consider if he should target a very different ""jailbreak" bogey-man than "progressive Soros prosecutors" is he really thinks we have an "under-incarceration crisis."  Sigh.