Still more data linking recent surge in gun sales to recent surge in murders

This new Atlantic piece, authored by Jeff Asher and Rob Arthur, provides yet another set of data points detailing the possible connection between an increase in gun purchases and a consequent increase in murders. The piece's full title summarizes its themes: "The Data Are Pointing to One Major Driver of America’s Murder Spike: A massive increase in gun sales in early 2020 seems to have contributed to the recent rise in homicides." Here are excerpts from the start and end of the piece:

After murders in the United States soared to more than 21,000 in 2020, researchers began searching for a definitive explanation why. Many factors may have contributed, such as a pandemic-driven loss of social programs and societal and policing changes after George Floyd’s murder. But one hypothesis is simpler, and perhaps has significant explanatory power: A massive increase in gun sales in early 2020 led to additional murders.

New data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) suggest that that indeed may have been the case. According to the data, newly purchased weapons found their way into crimes much more quickly and often last year than in prior years. That seems to point to a definitive conclusion — that new guns led to more murders — but the data set cannot prove that just yet....

Right now, we know that gun sales rose dramatically starting in March 2020, and that murder—driven by gun murders—increased substantially a few months later. We have strong evidence that more people were carrying guns before murder went up in 2020, and the ATF data tell us that newly purchased firearms were used in more crimes than usual. It stands to reason that new guns helped feed 2020’s murder surge, though the data to confirm this conclusion remain agonizingly out of reach. The data aren’t perfect, but they’re strongly suggestive: More guns are behind America’s murder spike.

A few of many prior related posts:

• More guns = more gun crimes in 2020? 
• "Crime Has Declined Overall During The Pandemic, But Shootings And Killings Are Up"
• Detailing "perfect storm" of factors that may account for increase in violent crime  
• CCJ's commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice releases latest "Impact Report: COVID-19 and Crime" 
• Amidst more guns and many more gun crimes (especially murders), can sentencing reforms move forward as media predicts "bloody summer"?
• Perhaps more guns explains why we have more gun homicides and more gun crimes
• More research to support notion that spike in gun sales contributed to spike in gun crimes