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March 18, 2022
Federal prison population, now at 154,194, has grown by well over 1100 persons in a short month
In this post last month, I suggested it may be foolish to be obsessed with weekly federal prison population data. But, I cannot help myself in light of the roller-coaster story of recent times: after historic federal prison population declines over the last two presidential terms (for a wide variety of reasons), the federal prison population slowly climbed through 2021 before another big drop in early 2022 with the implementation of FIRST STEP earned-time credits.
Checking in this week at the federal Bureau of Prisons updated reporting of "Total Federal Inmates," I see that we are back to the up-slope of this roller-coaster ride. Specifically, "Total Federal Inmates," now clocks in at 154,194, nearly 1150 more prisoners than the total number of federal inmates as of just four weeks ago, February 17, 2022, when the number stood at of 153,053.
I continue to suspect and assume this new data reflects some "return to normal" operations for the federal criminal justice system, with fewer COVID-related delays in cases and prison admissions (and many fewer COVID-related releases) producing this significant one-month federal prison population growth. But, whatever the particulars, I will not forget that candidate Joe Biden promised to "take bold action to reduce our prison population" and to "broadly use his clemency power for certain non-violent and drug crimes." Fourteen months into his administration, I am unaware of any bold action taken by Prez Biden and he has still yet to use his clemency power a single time, let alone broadly.
March 18, 2022 at 03:24 PM | Permalink
Comments
I suspect you are right about return to normal. I also suspect that the lack of clemencies is related to the disasters in cities with "defund the police" movements.
Posted by: William C Jockusch | Mar 18, 2022 6:28:08 PM
President Biden has not shown that he has any inclination toward sentencing reform or exercising mercy and compassion through clemency for nonviolent people serving egregious sentences. He has been urged to use clemency to grant mercy to categories of nonviolent offenders.
Of course a perfect category would be nonviolent marijuana offenders. Life and defacto life sentences for this category are especially egregious while the marijuana industry is spending millions of dollars lobbying for their marijuana business interests.
Posted by: beth curtis | Mar 18, 2022 8:51:36 PM
Biden is underwater, and the RCP Congressional polling average has the Democrats down 3.7 percent, meaning that they'll lose the House and may well lose the Senate. The direction of the country polling is awful; there's a major war in Europe; inflation is at a 40 year high with no end in sight; and overdose deaths and murder are way up. Against that background, I wouldn't be looking for any politically dicey moves like big pardons until after the election in November if then.
Posted by: Bill Otis | Mar 18, 2022 11:28:16 PM
I fear your political assessment is mostly right, Bill, but there are tens of thousands of people Biden could commute/pardon to get a possible political "win" -- eg, folks already on home confinement thanks to CARES, long-ago marijuana offenders, etc. Prez Trump before the mid-terms found Alice Marie Johnson and some others to both shore up his base and appeal to new folks. Biden is underwater, as I see it, in part because he has failed to embrace cleverly the opportunities for bipartisan "small wins" of the kind that could be done via clemency.
Posted by: Doug B. | Mar 19, 2022 9:50:45 AM
Bill, I believe that Biden could receive bi-partisan support by granting clemency for some categories. It's interesting that many republican congressmen received lobbying money from the marijuana industry and many republican fundraisers and politicians - present and past are invested in the industry.
The dialogue is that Trump's commutations were only granted to influential cronies. That in fact is not supported by the numbers as almost 2/3 of those who received commutations were non-violent drug offenders. Many of his pardons were also drug offenders. These clemency's were supported by many individuals and groups that can only be described a conservative.
Posted by: beth curtis | Mar 19, 2022 7:03:47 PM
Doug --
"Prez Trump before the mid-terms found Alice Marie Johnson and some others to both shore up his base and appeal to new folks.
I could never get a fix on who was in Trump's base. As you have sometimes pointed out, my establishment set inside the Beltway wasn't that keen on him, nor he on them for the most part. In any event, Trump didn't do all that well in the midterms and Joe is going to do worse.
"Biden is underwater, as I see it, in part because he has failed to embrace cleverly the opportunities for bipartisan "small wins" of the kind that could be done via clemency."
The big reasons by far that he's got problems are (1) inflation (I guess all that stimulus in a tight labor market wasn't such a good idea, as Larry Summers kept trying to tell him); (2) COVID management/lockdowns/unkept promises; (3) murder way up; (4) a growing feeling of unease and insecurity owing partly to the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and now from the failure to dissuade Putin. Pardons might goose the base a bit, but he's already got the base covered with the Judge Jackson nomination.
If there's any polling evidence that pardons have a political benefit, I haven't seen it. I think it more likely that they have a bad name -- a bad name earned by the abusive and political slant of which both the last two Presidents were guilty.
Posted by: Bill Otis | Mar 20, 2022 5:31:32 PM
Per Doug: there are tens of thousands of people Biden could commute/pardon to get a possible political "win"....
I have to disagree. I doubt there has been a pardon in my lifetime that helped the president to any perceptible degree. Of course, there are some that are hard to gauge, and others are totally innocuous -- but those are not the ones Doug wants. After all, a political win has to be something noticeable.
You seldom see very many pardons right before an election. Who was the last president whose use of the pardon power swung an election in his favor? Has that ever happened?
Posted by: Marc Shepherd | Mar 21, 2022 7:32:55 AM
@Bill Otis: Your assessment of Biden's problems must be tempered by the fact that almost all presidents lose ground in Congress in their first midterm election. You have to assume that this would happen no matter what Biden did, since it almost always does.
This is not to deny that Biden has had some missteps, as most presidents do. And even things presidents don't control tend to be blamed on them, because that's what it means to be in charge.
Posted by: Marc Shepherd | Mar 21, 2022 7:38:01 AM
I think grants that Marc might call "totally innocuous" could be politically valuable --- and just and justified --- though I do agree that clemency is rarely going to be a powerful political tool.
Posted by: Doug B. | Mar 21, 2022 9:24:44 AM
Marc Shepherd --
"Your assessment of Biden's problems must be tempered by the fact that almost all presidents lose ground in Congress in their first midterm election."
It also has to be tempered by the fact that the Rs gained House seats in 2020, even though Biden won. That is unusual, and represents something of a "down payment" on the typical out-party gains two years later.
"You have to assume that this would happen no matter what Biden did, since it almost always does."
The Ds losses will be greater than average because Biden's blunders have been greater than average. He ran as amiable, moderate Joe (which he was for most of his career) but has governed like Bernie with a mean streak. And the inflation is a real killer because it's everywhere all the time. Last time it was like this (in the 1980 election), the Ds lost 13 Senate seats. They won't lose anything like that this time, but the Senate is very much in play. The House is gone.
"This is not to deny that Biden has had some missteps, as most presidents do. And even things presidents don't control tend to be blamed on them, because that's what it means to be in charge."
Part of Biden's problem is that many, many people don't see him as being in charge. Much of this is because of his age, another problem that's hard to hide. One reason I voted against him is that he's just too old to be President, a job that takes an ungodly amount of energy (as Trump will be too old next time, along with various other problems).
Posted by: Bill Otis | Mar 21, 2022 2:29:21 PM
"Every time I think I'm out, they pull me back in again" as the old line goes. This administration is playing everyone as fools, and I must add that most people are buying it as well. From where 150,000 federal prisoners stand, I can say with the utmost certainty that prison reform will not change. Here's the facts, BOP rarely adheres to inmate friendly directives, even with the advent of COVID compassionate release, the Second Chance Act or the First Step Act mandates designed to reduce the inmate population, refused to cooperate and, in many instances, prolonged the submission of the paperwork necessary to reintegrate qualified inmates into society, like home confinement or half-way house placement. Politicians are willfully blind allowing the tail to wag the dog. Biden and Harris are the cause of harsh sentencing and three strikes, only fools would think they would be willing to reverse their stance.
Posted by: John Maurice Henoud | Mar 28, 2022 1:47:50 PM
