With first defendant now convicted after trial, how steep might the "trial penalty" be in the Jan 6 riot cases?

As reported in this AP piece, headlined "1st trial in Capitol riot ends with conviction all counts," we now have  a new conviction in the January 6 riot cases that can perhaps reveal some of the sentencing consequences of going to trial rather than pleading guilty.  Here are the basic details:

A Texas man was convicted on Tuesday of storming the U.S. Capitol with a holstered handgun, a milestone victory for federal prosecutors in the first trial among hundreds of cases arising from last year’s riot.

A jury also convicted Guy Wesley Reffitt of interfering with police officers who were guarding the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and of obstructing justice for threatening his two teenage children if they reported him to law enforcement after the attack. Jurors deliberated about three hours and convicted him on all counts.

The verdict could be a bellwether for many other Capitol riot cases. It could give Justice Department prosecutors more leverage in plea negotiations and discourage other defendants from gambling on trials of their own. Reffitt, 49, of Wylie, Texas, didn’t testify at his trial, which started last Wednesday. He didn’t visibly react to the verdict, but his face was covered by a mask.

During the trial’s closing arguments on Monday, Assistant U.S. Attorney Risa Berkower told jurors that Reffitt drove to Washington, D.C., intending to stop Congress from certifying President Joe Biden’s electoral victory.  Reffitt proudly “lit the fire” that allowed others in a mob to overwhelm Capitol police officers near the Senate doors, the prosecutor said.

Reffitt was not accused of entering the Capitol building.  Defense attorney William Welch said there is no evidence that Reffitt damaged property, used force or physically harmed anybody.  The defense lawyer urged jurors to acquit Reffitt of all charges but one: He said they should convict him of a misdemeanor charge that he entered and remained in a restricted area.

Reffitt faced a total of five counts: obstruction of an official proceeding, being unlawfully present on Capitol grounds while armed with a firearm, transporting firearms during a civil disorder, interfering with law enforcement officers during a civil disorder, and obstruction of justice.

Jurors saw videos that captured the confrontation between a few Capitol police officers and a mob of people, including Reffitt, who approached them on the west side of the Capitol. Reffitt was armed with a Smith & Wesson pistol in a holster on his waist, carrying zip-tie handcuffs and wearing body armor and a helmet equipped with a video camera when he advanced on police, according to prosecutors. He retreated after an officer pepper sprayed him in the face, but he waved on other rioters who ultimately breached the building, prosecutors said.

Before the crowd advanced, Reffitt used a megaphone to shout at police to step aside and to urge the mob to push forward and overtake officers. Assistant U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Nestler said Reffitt played a leadership role that day. During last Friday’s testimony, prosecutors zoomed in on a video image of Reffitt at the Capitol. FBI Special Agent Laird Hightower said the image shows “a silvery metallic linear object” in a holster protruding from under Reffitt’s jacket as he leaned forward....

Reffitt’s 19-year-old son, Jackson, testified last Thursday that his father threatened him and his sister, then 16, after he drove home from Washington. Reffitt told his children they would be traitors if they reported him to authorities and said “traitors get shot,” Jackson Reffitt recalled. Jackson Reffitt, then 18, said the threat terrified him. His younger sister, Peyton, was listed as a possible government witness but didn’t testify....

More than 750 people have been charged with federal crimes related to the riot.  Over 220 of them have pleaded guilty, mostly to misdemeanors. and over 110 of them have been sentenced. Approximately 90 others have trial dates.

This AP description of Reffitt's behaviors makes him sound like a more serious offender that some of those prosecuted for Jan 6 activities. but also less serious than some others.  I will be interested to see how guideline calculations and sentencing arguments play out for Reffitt in the months ahead.

Some of many prior related posts:

• "Many Capitol rioters unlikely to serve jail time" because some facing only misdemeanor convictions
• Noting the importance of charging policies and practices (and consistency?) as federal rioting charges get resolved from coast-to-coast
• Federal judges expressing some concern about lenient plea deals for some Capitol riot defendants
• Notable accounting of federal prosecutions and sentences responding to riots both before and during January 6
• Recent Jan 6 rioter sentencings showcase different judges with different sentencing perspectives
• Coverage and commentary as 100th guilty plea entered for federal charges in January 6 riots 
• Is longest prison term for Jan 6 rioter, and a possible new benchmark, coming this week?
• Feds get 41 months for one high-profile January 6 rioter and seek 51 months for another
• Accounting for the first 50 sentences imposed on January 6 rioters 
• Lots of new January 6 riot sentencings producing lots of notable new headlines and sentencing stories 
• Reviewing federal criminal prosecutions of January 6 rioters one year later
• January 6 riot prosecutions continuing to spotlight realities of federal criminal justice case processing