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January 18, 2023

Encouraging big-city homicide trends to close 2022 and start 2023

In this post at mid-year 2022, I flagged this AH Datalytics webpage's "YTD Murder Comparison" Dashboard that collects homicide data from police reports in nearly 100 big cities.  I noted in that post that, after significant increases in homicides throughout the US in 2020 and 2021, it was encouraging that the dashboard then showed that nearly two-thirds of big cities were reporting  homicide declines in 2022 relative to 2021 and that nationwide murders in large cities were down overall more than 2% at mid-year 2022.  Fast-forward six months, and there is more encouraging homicide data coming from big cities.

Specifically, with nearly all police data for 2022 collected, this dashboard as of this evening indicates that nearly two-thirds of all big cities reported that homicides wre down in 2022 relative to 2021 and that the total nationwide murders in large cities were down overall nearly 5% at by year end 2022.  Of course, these reported homicide declines for 2022 follow notably high homicide rates in many locales in 2021, and we still have a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic homicide levels.

Still, these data are encouraging, and the downward trends in homicides in our nation's largest cities for all of 2022 may be carrying over to the start of 2023.  Specifically, based on the dashboard data and (linked) police reports, we see:

Chicago homicides down 13% in 2022 and down another 17% in first two weeks of 2023

Los Angeles homicides down 5% in 2022 and down another 39% in first two weeks of 2023

New York City homicides down 11% in 2022 and down another 12% in first two weeks of 2023

Philadelphia homicides down 9% in 2022 and down another 43% in first two weeks of 2023

Of course, these four very big cities are not fully representative of what may be going on with homicides nationwide as 2023 gets started, and homicide trends in the first two weeks of January could change in many ways in the weeks and months ahead.  Still,  these encouraging data reinforce my hope that surging homicides in 2020 and 2021 were mostly a pandemic era phenomenon and that lower homicide rates may soon be more common. 

January 18, 2023 at 11:20 PM | Permalink


I too believe that the Pandemic and subsequent shutdown caused the homicide spike from 2020-2021. Institutions closed, society grew wary and tensions flared. The media predicted a "crime wave" but that was greatly exaggerated. Homicide rates will drop to pre-pandemic levels sooner than later.

Posted by: Anon | Jan 19, 2023 7:18:01 AM

Good point anon. "We," the "People," have to understand the role that the media plays in creating these hysterias.

That's not to say that there is not residuum of truth in the fact that people may feel less safe, but more of it is done to fit a "narrative" rather than keeping the public safe. Fear sells and is a great motivator for political purposes.

What displeases me the most is the kind of world we are leaving for our kids where the media controls the mind and dictates how people act and feel. There was a great music group called Funkadelic who had once of the greatest songs ever written called, "America Eats Its Young." There is battle going on for the minds of our kids being fought on the "left" and the "right." It's not about leaving the kids a better world at all; it's about who can win the ideological war.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 9:59:14 AM

Chicago is still a very very very dangerous place.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 10:47:12 AM

Yes---the media frenzy aside, regrettably, it is still a dangerous place.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 11:02:32 AM

And a dangerous place due to a 'rat mayor.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 11:03:32 AM

Well, that's your opinion. You are entitled to it. I don't think the mayor---regardless of their political stripes---would make much of a difference.

But for the record, I am no Lori Lightfoot fan. I just think the problems lie so much deeper than her.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 11:19:11 AM

"I don't think the mayor---regardless of their political stripes---would make much of a difference."

Rudy Giuliani made a difference. Lightfoot has been a huge part of de-policing in Chicago. Chicago is a Dem-run city--has been for years--are you absolving the party for responsibility for the lack of safety in Chicago?

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 12:02:06 PM

You're talking of one instance. And again, that's your opinion. Someone could say the same thing about Marty Walsh and it would be "their opinion." I could highlight individual accomplishments as well my friend by both parties. What you won't do is convince me of that one party is more equipped than the other to address these issues. That's downright foolish.

Posted by: Eric A. Hiocks | Jan 19, 2023 12:13:12 PM

Good grief. A non-defense defense of Lightfoot and crew. She has adopted specific policies that neuter police. Democrats in general are softer on crime than the GOP. Last tough on crime Dem was Gray Davis.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 12:33:22 PM

You keep making my point.

The left puts themselves in a box when it comes to crime so that they can't effectively weed it out and prevent it. It could easily construed as soft; I have no problem with that.

But you then tell me that the right is pro-police when I have seem them openly attack law enforcement when they don't support their 'narrative.' That does not sound like "law & order" to me. Only "law & order" when it fits within your worldview. That's as anti-cop as some on the left that I have seen.

I keep telling you my friend, both parties of full of "it."

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 12:47:51 PM

Who and what is responsible for murder? A crucial question. I addressed it here: https://ringsideatthereckoning.substack.com/p/who-bears-accountability-for-violent

Posted by: Bill Otis | Jan 19, 2023 1:23:00 PM

Huh? I didn't say that the GOP never "attacked" police. And where the police deserved to be criticized, they should be criticized. It certainly is possible to be law and order and criticize the FBI for what it did with respect to Hunter's laptop.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 1:24:00 PM

If Hunter Biden, Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton were you or I, their residences would have been raided (stormtrooper-style) and they would have been in custody awaiting their day in court.

If Donald J. Trump, Matt Gaetz or Santos were you or I, they would have been in custody as well awaiting their day in court.

The rules for them and us are different. One day you'll believe me and the spell will wear off.

I keep telling you the greatest trick ever pulled is to make the 'people' buy into an ideology that really doesn't support them. These people stoke grievances. That's it. They are not good for anything else. Neither party is interested in solving real problems. Why, when you have 'suckers' on both side who willingly parrot your every talking point.

Once again, I refuse to enroll in their game.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 1:35:00 PM

Erick A. Hicks,

Two things can be true at once.

The Democrat cartel gets preferential treatment over their Republican counterparts AND the elitist class gets preferential treatment over us lunchbucket Joes.

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jan 19, 2023 2:10:41 PM

Aww---Eric is a "pox on both their houses" troll.

You pick a particularly bad example with Gaetz--it looks like the DoJ trumped up bogus investigation against Gaetz and leaked it.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 19, 2023 2:14:55 PM

You guys make me laugh. Thanks, it's needed in this world we live. That's a sincere thanks too---no sarcasm at all.

So TarlsQtr, you are on to something. The only thing we seem to differ on is the degree of preferential treatment afforded to the parties. I don't think there's either side with an advantage. I see it as "them" and "us"---the lunchbucket Joes. TarlsQtr and Eric would have been destroyed if we had engaged in anything similar to what these people do.

As for you federalist, even assuming (which I am willing to do( that Gaetz is completely innocent, if he were you or I, his life would be ruined already because the power of the State and/or Federal Governments would have 'crushed' him. Neither federalist nor Eric would ever get that type of preferential treatment---presumption of innocence be damned.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 19, 2023 2:41:56 PM


I believe our disagreement may come from you not realizing how leftist the bureaucracy and top levels of our government agencies are?

I’m not sure how it is debatable. There are many studies looking at political donations, etc.

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jan 19, 2023 5:41:35 PM

"You guys make me laugh."


This isn't the GOP. There are differences between the parties, and this case highlights one of them.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 20, 2023 12:58:23 PM

Please explain to me the difference between Solomon Pena, George Santos, AOC, etc. There are no difference between the parties to me---they are all grifters.

I value the independence of my thoughts and refuse to be anyones puppet. These parties are making "fools" of the public. I refuse to enroll in their game or parrot there every talking point or latest outrage.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 20, 2023 1:15:54 PM

George Santos, while a liar, doesn't want to fundamentally reshape American society like AOC does. George Santos, unlike AOC, doesn't want to appropriate hundreds of billions for student loan forgiveness.

Like I said, A "pox on both their houses" troll.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 20, 2023 1:20:33 PM

No, I use common sense. I know when someone is peddling BS and I call it out. If that makes me a troll, so be it. I refuse to parrot anyone's ideology that I know is based on BS. We can go back and forth with examples and play tag with this all day. In the end, I will trust in what my eyes are seeing. They haven't failed me in all of these years.

These people are not interested in the public. They are into enriching themselves---at our expense. They both ignore the obvious when it does not comport with their agenda. And they both traffic in victimhood when it is convenient. Two sides of the same coin is what I call liberals and conservatives.

I don't see much that separates their partisan antics from that of a street gang. This is why more and more of the public finds itself in the middle of the road. People are tired of this nonsense.

You strike me as a pretty wise person federalist so I am surprised that you don't see this. I have experienced my fair share of street hustlers and swindlers and these people in public office have not some but "all" of those characteristics. They will say "anything" and do "anything" as long as it is convenient for their political future.

Posted by: Eric A. Hicks | Jan 20, 2023 2:14:16 PM

There are differences between the parties--take a gander of the story I linked. That pols are generally pond scum doesn't mean that there aren't differences between the parties, and it doesn't excuse, for example, Democrats from being blamed for the crime problem in Chicago.

Posted by: federalist | Jan 20, 2023 3:56:51 PM

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