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July 9, 2023
Mid-summer update on the relatively good homicide news from cities in first half of 2023
In this post from early April 2023 and this follow-up post in late May, I flagged the AH Datalytics collection of homicide data from police reports in nearly 100 big cities to note that, after significant increases in homicides throughout the US in 2020 and 2021, homicide declines in 2022 were continuing into the start of 2023. Of course, homicide declines for 2022 followed particularly high homicide rates in many locales in 2021, and we still have a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic homicide levels. Still, I continue to find the nationwide city homicide data to be encouraging, and now we almost this data for the entire first half of 2023.
As we head into the second half of 2023, according to this AH Datalytics webpage, there is now so far just under an 11% cumulative decline in murders across the nation's cities for the first half of 2023. And, as I have done in some prior posts on homicide rates, I find it interesting (and still encouraging) to took a closer look at a updated police reports showing 2023 homicide trends in our very biggest US cities:
Chicago homicides down 14% in 2022, and down another 8% over the first half of 2023
Houston homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 24% over the first five months of 2023
Los Angeles homicides down 5% in 2022, and down another 23% over the first half of 2023
New York City homicides down 11% in 2022, and down another 10% in first half of 2023
Philadelphia homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 22% over first five months of 2023
As I have said before, these homicide data from cities are likely not fully representative of what may be going on with homicides nationwide, and homicide trends always seem to be unpredictable and data can change in lots of ways in coming months. Still, the latest nationwide homicide data from the AH Datalytics webpage continue to reinforce my hope that the surging number of homicides in just about every part of the US through 2020 and 2021 were mostly a pandemic era phenomenon and that homicide rates may nor be trending back toward pre-pandemic norms.
July 9, 2023 at 02:55 PM | Permalink
Comments
Why there was no crime surge in other countries that had lockdowns, but didn’t have a reduction of their incarceration rates and BLM? And how long after the pandemic will survive a phenomenon supposedly caused by it?
Posted by: Jackson | Jul 9, 2023 3:46:13 PM
Though I do not see data on many nations collected in one place, I have seen reports of homicide increases in Australia and Canada and France and Italy and the UK.
What is your basis, Jackson, for suggesting that there was no homicide increase in other countries that had lockdowns?
Posted by: Doug B | Jul 9, 2023 4:13:42 PM
I said crime not just homicide, and even for homicides I don’t think that many countries had an increase as high as 30% in a single year.
There have been some weeks between the beginning of lockdowns and the BLM riots. Until then many medias reported that crime was falling because of the lockdowns.
It would simplistic to say that decarceration was the inflammable material, and BLM the spark. Actually, both have alone an extremely negative impact on crime. It would be more precise to say that BLM accelerated something that would have otherwise happened later.
Posted by: Jackson | Jul 9, 2023 4:47:25 PM
It would be simplistic of course.
Posted by: Jackson | Jul 9, 2023 5:58:30 PM
Homicides are way down here in Lexington- Fayette County, Kentucky in 2023. In 2022, we set a new re ord, 43 homicides. In January 2023, we had 0 homicides for the first time in more than 10 years. Two days ago, July 7th, we had our 10th homicide, a 16 year old victim. By July 8, 2022, we had had more than 20 homicides. If this trend continues, we could end 2023 with just 20 or so homicides.
Posted by: Jim Gormley | Jul 9, 2023 8:04:45 PM
Homicides are way down here in Lexington- Fayette County, Kentucky in 2023. In 2022, we set a new re ord, 43 homicides. In January 2023, we had 0 homicides for the first time in more than 10 years. Two days ago, July 7th, we had our 10th homicide, a 16 year old victim. By July 8, 2022, we had had more than 20 homicides. If this trend continues, we could end 2023 with just 20 or so homicides.
Posted by: Jim Gormley | Jul 9, 2023 8:04:45 PM
Homicides are way down here in Lexington- Fayette County, Kentucky in 2023. In 2022, we set a new re ord, 43 homicides. In January 2023, we had 0 homicides for the first time in more than 10 years. Two days ago, July 7th, we had our 10th homicide, a 16 year old victim. By July 8, 2022, we had had more than 20 homicides. If this trend continues, we could end 2023 with just 20 or so homicides.
Posted by: Jim Gormley | Jul 9, 2023 8:04:45 PM
@jackson:
"BLM accelerated something that would have otherwise happened later."
What did BLM accelerate and how did they do it?
"but didn’t have a reduction of their incarceration rates"
What was the level of decarceration nationwide both actually and per capita in the cities and states that you are referring to? And what were the violent crime recidivism rates in those areas?
What, in your opinion is the causal connection between BLM and crime and how does it happen?
I mean, I'm just asking questions.
Posted by: Jeremy Gordon | Jul 11, 2023 1:17:48 PM
