Should a bounce in crypto markets mean a much lower federal sentence for Sam Bankman-Fried?

The question in the title of this post is prompted by this new CoinDesk article headlined "Sam Bankman-Fried's Sentence Might Be Lighter Than You'd Expect."  Here are excerpts:

Former FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) may be handed a lighter sentence than otherwise when he faces District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan next month because customers of the bankrupt exchange will probably be made whole thanks to a bounce in crypto markets and the buoyancy of certain investments held by the estate.

Bankman-Fried was found guilty of fraud in November 2023, about a year after his crypto trading empire collapsed. During the bankruptcy process, the crypto market has risen sharply -- CoinDesk Indices' CD20 gauge has gained more than 130% -- meaning many thousands of hapless creditors are going to receive all the funds they had locked in, albeit at November 2022 prices.  In July last year, the bankruptcy team said customers were owed $8.7 billion.

The jump in crypto markets matters because restitution can be taken into account for sentencing.  For example, for low losses, the guidelines suggest a range of 24-30 months.  A high-loss amount, in contrast, could lead to a draconian range of upwards of 20 years’ imprisonment, or even life, according to Jordan Estes, a partner at the New York City office of law firm Kramer Levin. “I would expect the loss amount to be hotly contested at sentencing,” said Estes, a former assistant U.S. attorney who co-led the general crimes unit in the Southern District of New York, where the trial took place.  “In particular, the defense may argue for a substantially lower loss amount, or even a loss amount of $0, if all customers and creditors will be made whole,” she told CoinDesk via email.

That said, the U.S. sentencing guidelines that give defendants credit for amounts returned to victims apply only when the return took place before the offense was detected.  In this case, it’s clearly not SBF who is giving the money back, and the payments come well after discovery of the offense.  A possible parallel is the case of fraudulent financier Bernie Madoff, who died in prison at the age of 82 while serving a series of consecutive sentences that ran to 150 years. In Madoff's case, the bankruptcy trustee also recovered large sums of stolen money, but he didn't receive any credit for that.

Prior related post:

• You be the judge: what federal sentence for Sam Bankman-Fried after guilty verdict on seven criminal fraud counts? 
• Some early chatter and speculation about Sam Bankman-Fried's coming federal sentencing 

UPDATE: In the comments, Professor Todd Haugh flagged his recent LinedIn posting discussing these issues.  Here is how his discussion concludes:

In the federal system, the sentencing range applicable to an economic offender like SBF is heavily determined by the loss amount. The higher the loss, the higher the sentencing range, and the higher the eventual sentence (even though judges don't have to follow the range they are anchored by it).

You might ask (as DealBook does), if customers are made whole and there is no loss, doesn't that help SBF at sentencing?  You would think, except sentencing loss isn't loss like we think of it -- it's actual or intended loss according to the Sentencing Guidelines and most caselaw.  So even though Ray found all the money and there may be very little actual loss, SBF's fraud caused an intended loss of about $8B.  That's the number that will set the loss amount regardless of how much is recovered for customers (subject to a lot-and I mean a lot-of argument between prosecutors and SBF).

But what about the "sort of" part?  Even though the intended loss is what it is, because the guideline range is only advisory, Judge Kaplan can ignore it and impose a lower sentence. That almost always happens in high loss white collar cases because the loss amounts push the sentencing ranges to outlandish heights.  And when the judge is considering how low to go, he's going to be considering that "actual loss" amount, which may be $0 here.

It's not a get out of jail free card, but it matters.