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April 11, 2024

"State Sentencing Reforms Had Little Impact on Racial Disparities in Imprisonment, Analysis Finds"

The title of this post is the the title of this new press release from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) discussing the latest findings of research it has been conducting looking at incarceration disparities.  Here is part of the press release, with lnks from the original providing access to the underlying research:

The Black-White disparity in imprisonment has narrowed substantially over the past 20 years but very little of the progress can be attributed to state sentencing reforms, according to a series of reports released today by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).

Following on previous analyses that documented a 40% drop in the Black-White imprisonment disparity between 2000 and 2020, researchers at CCJ, Georgia State University, and the Crime and Justice Institute examined more than 700 statutes adopted in 12 states between 2010 and 2020, seeking to understand how sentencing reforms might have influenced the reduction.  Laws included for study related to violent, property, and drug crimes, as well as parole release and technical violation practices.  The study states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah) varied by region, demographic composition, sentencing structure, and the political party in power.

With minor exceptions, the analysis found that the sentencing reforms had negligible impacts on reducing racial disparities, and instead largely codified changes to enforcement, policing, charging, and sentencing practices that had occurred before the laws were enacted. In addition, many sentencing law changes that took effect during the study period addressed fairly infrequent crimes and therefore had a minimal effect on disparity. 

The findings suggest that factors beyond sentencing laws were mostly responsible for the Black-White imprisonment disparity declining from 8.2-to-1 in 2000 to 4.9-to-1 in 2020. Though the study did not statistically assess alternative explanations, the authors offered several other possible reasons for the shrinking disparity, including changes in policing practices, drug use (from cocaine to opioids), how drugs are sold (from open-air markets to the use of GPS-equipped smartphones), and the types of crimes people commit (from burglary to cybercrime, for example)....

The 12-state analysis is part of a sweeping package on racial disparities released by CCJ’s Pushing Toward Parity project. It includes an in-depth look at the legislative changes in each of the 12 study states as well as two reports examining disparities in imprisonment through other lenses.

One analysis examined state imprisonment disparities between Hispanic and non-Hispanic White people.  It found that disparity in imprisonment rates declined during the first two decades of the century, but that the precise size of the drop is unclear because of a conflict between data sources. In 2020, data collected from state corrections departments showed a Hispanic-White disparity ratio of 1.5-to-1; data from a federal prison survey, however, produced a ratio that was 2.7-to-1, or 80% larger. 

The gap in disparity ratios derived from each source has increased over time.  In 2000, the two disparity ratios were roughly equivalent, but by 2020 the federal data disparity ratio was 80% larger.  The measurement gap stems from how race and ethnicity are recorded and classified in each source.  The choice of measurement method makes a large difference in the projected achievement of parity: if current trends continue, the Hispanic-White disparity measure drawn from state data would reach parity by about 2026, while the measure from federal data would reach parity about 30 years later.

Another analysis focused on disparities in female prison populations. It found that state imprisonment disparity between Black and White women fell by 71% between 2000 and 2020, decreasing from 6.3-to-1 to 1.8-to-1 and exceeding the drop for men.  The decline was driven by a 56% decline in the imprisonment rate for Black women and a 57% increase for White women.  Hispanic-White female imprisonment rate disparity also fell (by 56%) over the two-decade period, data from state corrections departments showed; it has been at or below parity since 2010 and reached 0.7-to-1 in 2020, meaning that White women were more likely to be imprisoned than Hispanic women.

Female imprisonment disparity fell across violent, property, and drug offense categories, with the largest drop recorded for drug crimes.  From 2000 to 2020, Black-White drug offense imprisonment disparity among women dropped from 8 to 0.6, reaching parity in 2016.  Hispanic-White drug offense imprisonment disparity fell from 2.4 in 2000 to 0.5 in 2020. Changes in the demographic composition of prison admissions drove the trends.  From 2000 to 2019, admissions decreased 47% for Black females, increased 15% for Hispanic females, and rose 138% for White females. 

April 11, 2024 at 09:06 AM | Permalink

Comments

What about the black-to-white disparity in death-by-homicide rates?

As long as there is a disparity there, and as long as the race of the offender tends to match the race of the victim, the disparity in imprisonment rates may be perfectly appropriate.

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 11, 2024 10:07:41 AM

I would think Hispanics being over-represented in the federal system not 'making sense' would disappear once you realize that immigration offenses are a federal matter.

Posted by: Soronel Haetir | Apr 11, 2024 11:55:32 AM

I think I recall that in a recent year(s), Federal immigration offenses exceeded drug offenses as the leading area of prosecution, at least in border states like Texas, Arizona and New Mexico, if not for the entire country [all 93 Federal Judicial Districts]. This phenomenon is a reflection that for many years now, our Southern border is not secure and millions of illegal aliens have been permitted to cross the border with impunity. A number that recently caught my attention is that in the last 2 years, more than 4 million undocumented Hispanic people have either attempted to cross or have actually crossed the Southern border from Mexico into the United States. My state, Kentucky, has a population of about 4.4 million people, slightly more than the number of illegal aliens entering in the last 2 years - A POPULATION EQUAL TO THE ENTIRE POPULTION OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY. IF the Feds cannot secure our Southern border, then they must permit the states to secure their own, individual borders. We voters should flex our muscles at the ballot box on this issue.

Posted by: Jim Gormley | Apr 11, 2024 3:28:37 PM

Here in Lexington, Kentucky, we have had a particular problem with undocumented Hispanic immigrants driving drunk and hurting and/or killing others while doing so. Many of these undocumented aliens have had multiple arrests for DUI and driving without a driver's license but have still never been deported. In May 2015, a drunk illegal Mexican, Odilon Paz-Salvador, struck and killed Lexington attorney Mark Hinkel, who was riding on kilometer 99 of a 100-mile bike race. Hinkel was a married father off several children and a community leader, who coached his kids athletic teams and was a leader at the Cathedral of Christ the King Catholic Church. Paz-Salvador had 5 prior DUIs and had never been issued a Driver's License in any state. Despite his prior record, he has never been deported from the U.S. by ICE/Homeland Security. In the Hinkel case, Paz-Salvador pleaded guilty to murder, wanton endangerment and leaving the scene of an accident, resulting in death, and was sentenced to 35 years in prison. Although his OUT DATE is not until 2050, he comes up for parole in 2035, although it seems unlikely that he would be paroled upon his first opportunity for parole.

Posted by: Jim Gormley | Apr 11, 2024 3:55:09 PM

Well, you know my preferred sentence for offenders like Mr. Paz-Salvador.

Posted by: Soronel Haetir | Apr 11, 2024 4:54:43 PM

I enjoy the in-depth analysis provided by CCJ. The issue that is not expressly stated is that violent crimes and sentencing must be addressed to reach parity and end mass incarceration.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 11, 2024 8:00:09 PM

@Anon -- NO!!!!

In an ideal world, where black and white Americans were homicide victims at equal rates, that would of course make sense. But the fact is that black Americans are the victims of homicide far more often than white Americans. And it's mostly black offenders who are doing it.

If we follow some misguided notion of racial justice to try to equalize incarceration rates, the statistics make it inevitable black murderers would get on average far shorter sentences than white murderers.

And, since the killer and victim more often than not have the same race, the black homicide victimization rate would likely get even worse.

Hence, the first problem that needs solving is the difference in homicide victimization rates.

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 11, 2024 8:45:44 PM

William Jockusch --

Yup. All this baloney about reaching "parity" is poisonous nonsense. Do we want to reach parity in the imprisonment rate for violent crimes of males v. females? NO. Why not? Because males and females commit violent crime at massively different rates, and therefore should show up in prison at massively different rates.

Is this because society discriminates against men? No. It's because men behave much differently and worse.

Same with blacks. Do I like it? It makes no difference. The truth is the truth whether you like it or not.

Indeed, we should stop following racial statistics about crime/punishment because race has nothing causal to do with it, and these statistics are just used as weapons for those who want to see a "justice system" in which how you're treated depends on what you look like rather than how you behave.

Posted by: Bill Otis | Apr 11, 2024 9:19:50 PM

The justice system is already based on how you look rather than how you behave. Class also influences the punishment and sentence imposed on an offender.

The problem is disparity in sentencing between blacks and whites. A black person with no criminal record convicted of a violent crime should not be given a harsher sentence than a white person for the same offense and a criminal record. The goal is to end sentencing disparities. Unless of course you think that black people should receive harsher sentences.

William,

Your post speaks volumes:
"Is this because society discriminates against men? No. It's because men behave much differently and worse.

Same with blacks. Do I like it? It makes no difference. The truth is the truth whether you like it or not."

We must follow racial stats about crime and punishment because the goal is to insure justice under the law. We should all be treated equally under the law. Whether you like it or not.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 11, 2024 9:49:55 PM

Anon --

Your second statement I agree with:

A black person with no criminal record convicted of a violent crime should not be given a harsher sentence than a white person for the same offense and a criminal record.

That's correct. In that case, the black person with no criminal record would, other things being equal, typically deserve a lesser sentence. You are getting it right the second time, because you are looking at it at the individual level, not the group level.

One also has to accept that doing this will not result in parity at the group level.

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 11, 2024 9:57:37 PM

Anon --

Your second statement I agree with:

A black person with no criminal record convicted of a violent crime should not be given a harsher sentence than a white person for the same offense and a criminal record.

That's correct. In that case, the black person with no criminal record would, other things being equal, typically deserve a lesser sentence. You are getting it right the second time, because you are looking at it at the individual level, not the group level.

One also has to accept that doing this will not result in parity at the group level.

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 11, 2024 9:57:39 PM

Anon --

Do you think we should have the same number of men and women in prison for violent crime, regardless of their very different rates of committing violent crime?

Also, you write: "The justice system is already based on how you look rather than how you behave." I was in the system for 25 years. Your statement is false.

Posted by: Bill Otis | Apr 12, 2024 8:46:45 AM

Sorry for the delay. I know that males comprise roughly 90% of the prison population because men commit more crimes. However, my concern is the racial disparity based on the sentencing disparities I mentioned in my previous post. The fact that black folks are overrepresented in prison is based on over policing in majority black communities. It is also class based as a study showed that 8 in 10 black males in prison are poor.

Having said that I am glad to see the decrease in arrests and incarceration for black folks and hope more efforts are made to achieve parity, regardless of what some of the posters of this board think.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 12, 2024 10:52:01 PM

Anon stated: “ We must follow racial stats about crime and punishment because the goal is to insure justice under the law. We should all be treated equally under the law. Whether you like it or not.”

Of course we shouldn’t. It’s impossible and not even desirable.

No two murders are “equal.” No two criminals are “equal.” One reason it is best to have locals prosecute cases is because they (including DA, judge, and jury members) are more in tune with local priorities than the feds.

If you pulled your pants down and took a sh!t on the street in the small upstate NY town I grew up in, you’d go to prison and likely have to register as a SO. That’s their priorities. It’s not a priority in San Francisco.

Racial inequalities in sentencing is only an issue if it is because of race. If other factors are causing it, Bill’s example of the disparity between men and women is a good one, so be it.

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Apr 12, 2024 10:58:04 PM

Who says it's not desirable? You and a few of the right wingers that post here? It's certainly desirable for folks that want to end mass incarceration and stop racial bias in the criminal system.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 12, 2024 11:26:00 PM

You miss the point. It’s not “bias” if one group of people is more aggressive than others. Just like Bill’s example of men vs. women.

Is it your claim that the system is biased towards white men?

Use logic instead of your feelz.

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Apr 13, 2024 1:02:38 AM

I am using logic instead of feelz. The fact that you claim one group of people is more aggressive than others shows your bias. You are claiming black people are more aggressive than white people.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 13, 2024 9:20:05 AM

Anon --

If, blacks and whites commit crimes at the same rate, why are blacks disproportionately the victims of homicide?

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 13, 2024 11:12:27 AM

William Jockusch --

You actually understate your case. It's not merely that blacks are disproportionately the victims of homicide. It's that they comprise 54% of murder victims while being just 13% of the population. And virtually all blacks are killed by other blacks.

The thing we can do if we really think that black lives matter is suppress the murder rate. And we do that with more policing, more aggressive policing, and more incarceration.

See also these staggering statistics, which I spelled out on the most widely read entry I ever did on my Substack, "Ringside at the Reckoning" https://ringsideatthereckoning.substack.com/p/the-klan-was-never-this-effective

Posted by: Bill Otis | Apr 13, 2024 12:38:03 PM

Anon,

Are white women equally as aggressive white men? Are Jews equally aggressive as white men?

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Apr 13, 2024 6:38:58 PM

Judaism isn't a race, it's a religion.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 13, 2024 7:40:09 PM

Anon,

In other words, you admit that the actions of people (aggressiveness) is caused by things other than some racial inclination, and more of one race being incarcerated is not “racism.”

Thanks for playing. Lol

Posted by: TarlsQtr | Apr 13, 2024 11:48:05 PM

Anon,

The high black incarceration rate is the combined result of thousands of individual cases.

To pick an example I came across just now, here is an episode of a popular TV show about police trying to solve murders. In this particular episode, both victims are black, both charged suspects are black, and a third suspect remained unidentified as of when the show was aired.

Do you think that if convicted, the charged suspects should get sentencing discounts because they are black?

And, should the third suspect be identified, suppose that, against the statistical likelihood, he turns out to be white? In your desired world, would he then get a higher sentence because of his race?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjUKFDGVbPs

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 14, 2024 11:08:30 AM

If they are all convicted of murder then the sentence of that jurisdiction should be imposed. Provided that factors such as age, mental competency and criminal record are considered.

Posted by: Anon | Apr 14, 2024 11:45:17 AM

. . . Yes. I agree. But by doing that, we end up with approximately the racial disparities in imprisonment rates we see today.

Posted by: William Jockusch | Apr 14, 2024 12:39:35 PM

Disparate offending rates are acknowledged throughout the Pushing Toward Parity series. Note this in the main "multi-state report" that's the lead piece of the new batch as one of three possible ways to further narrow the population-based imprisonment disparity: "Closing the disparity gap in violent offending by using evidence-based strategies to reduce violence in Black communities;"

Also, an an example, see analysis in the 2022 report which shows "By 2019, the Black-White disparity in arrest rates for non-fatal violent crimes (based on victim accounts of offenders) was eliminated."

Posted by: Adam Gelb | Apr 17, 2024 9:37:01 AM

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