The latest encouraging violent crime data ... and differing takes on US crime realities

This past Friday, the Major Cities Chiefs Association released this accounting of violent crime for the first quarter on 2024 based on surveys of 68 cities in the US.  These data included homicide totals suggesting that, cumulatively, homicides have dropped nearly 20% in these cities at the start of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 (which also experienced a homicide decline compared to 2022).  In addition, these data indicate (notable but lesser) declines in rape, robbery and aggravated assault. 

These data do not, of course, reflect the crime realities in every region on the US, and crime trends certainly could charge over the course of 2024.  Still, these data provide ever more reason to believe that COVID-era crime spikes in 2020 and 2021 have not become the new normal.  Indeed, the homicide rate to start 2024 based on the preliminary data would seem to be right now lower than the pre-pandemic homicide rate in US for 2019 and almost as low as the least lethal year in modern US history in 2014.  Again, these data are not complete and could change, but the broader violent crime data and trends are surely encouraging.  

Of course, crime data past and present always provide a basis for various crime takes, and here are three I have seen recently that are notable and notably different:

From the Brennan Center, "Violent Crime Is Falling Nationwide — Here’s How We Know"

From the City Journal, "Enduring Lawlessness in Our Cities: Crime continues to plague the American urban core at much higher levels than before the pandemic."

From External Processing, "Violence is Plummeting in the US!: And We Should Thank The Invisible Touch of Local Government"

UPDATE on 5/6: Here one more notable data take on crime that seemed worth adding to the discussion:

From Jeff-alytics, "Is The NIBRS Transition To Blame For Our Current Crime Trends?; Short answer: No. Longer answer: Also no."