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July 28, 2024
"Crime rates are improving. Too bad crime data is not."
The title of this post is the headline of this new Washington Post editorial. Here are excerpts:
There’s encouraging news about crime rates in the United States. After a spike in both violent crime and property offenses after the pandemic-and-protest year of 2020, statistics show that crime is reverting to 2019 levels. That’s according to a newly released midyear report by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, based on monthly offense rates for 12 violent, property and drug crimes in 39 cities that have consistently reported such data over the past six years....
Even with the recent improvements, it is undeniable that crime, including the worst crime — homicide — spiked nationally in recent years. The trauma and insecurity that this caused lingers. In seven U.S. cities that provide data on carjacking, that offense remains 68 percent more frequent than it was in the first half of 2019, according to CCJ’s report. Shoplifting and car theft also remain at elevated levels.
Given the emotions that inevitably swirl around this subject, public opinion will probably never precisely reflect statistical reality. But at least the government could publish a sufficiently precise and up-to-date picture of statistical reality. Unfortunately, it does not, as another recent CCJ report explained. The lead federal source for national data, the FBI, issues annual reports each October based on numbers gathered up to 18 months previously and reported — voluntarily and with varying degrees of accuracy — to the bureau by some 18,000 police agencies....
In an age of social media and viral video, the government should be able to update the public on crime at least as often as, say, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on inflation or unemployment — that is, monthly. Even reports based on a representative sample of jurisdictions would be an improvement over the status quo.
And yet the FBI’s new incident-reporting platform, intended to improve data quality, has made it more time-consuming and complex for police departments to send information to Washington. It has proven especially difficult for small, local agencies, nearly half of which have 10 or fewer officers on staff....
The Bureau of Justice Statistics gets less money from Congress than almost any other federal statistical agency. Last fiscal year, the bureau received $35 million, far less than the $78 million President Biden had requested and less than the $42 million it received the year prior. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, by contrast, received $698 million. Private groups such as CCJ do important work with their limited resources, as its latest report on crime trends, despite unavoidable data limitations, shows. Keeping citizens fully informed about crime is a public responsibility, however. It deserves public resources to match.
July 28, 2024 at 09:14 PM | Permalink
Comments
Still way too much crime, and cities are way too unsafe. Plus, I have a feeling that some urban areas are cooking the books.
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 9:17:07 AM
Crime rates are near or at pre-Pandemic levels nationwide. Granted, some cities are experiencing high crime rates but those municipalities are the exception rather than the rule. A single act of robbery, murder or burglary is bad, but we are not in the midst of a crime wave.
Fed stated that "cities are way to unsafe." This is a broad statement as I'm unsure as to what cities he's referring to. Philadelphia, Baltimore and New Orleans have historically had high homicide rates. Yet, in 2024 the homicide rates for these aforementioned cities has declined by over 30%.
He also mentioned that cities are "cooking the books." Law enforcement agencies record crime stats and it's preposterous to think these agencies would falsely report low crime rates. It is counterintuitive for a law enforcement agency to claim crime is low as it would lead to less city, state or Federal funding. So no, there's no evidence of a city "cooking the books."
We should rejoice the reduction in crime as no one wants to live in a dangerous area. We should strive to invest in programs that will divert youth from violent crime and also address poverty as it is a cause for crime.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 29, 2024 11:25:51 AM
Laken Riley could not be reached for comment. And a lot of crimes just don't get reported because, why bother?
https://ad03.asmrc.org/2024/07/10/icymi-oakland-unsurprisingly-cooked-the-crime-books/ And then there's that . . . .
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 12:30:42 PM
Of course Laken cant comment and this statement is moot.
I read the article on Oakland and the data misinformation is the result of an outdated system. However, the San Francisco Chronicle stated even when the numbers are corrected, crime still declined. I suggest reading the homicide stats on AH Analytics.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 29, 2024 12:43:36 PM
Laken cannot comment, and that blood is on the hands of Joe Biden/Kamala "Border Czar" Harris. I think Democrats look at the predations of alien criminals as part of the omelet process of entrenching themselves in power.
There's also the systemic underreporting of hate crimes where the victim is white. To cite a horrifying example, a black football player urinated on the face of an unconscious white women (whom he had raped) and said that it was 400 years of slavery. A clear hate crime. Yet neither reported or charged as such. And the black judge gave the mandatory minimum. (Great example of why we have MMs because it's very likely that the guy would have gotten less than 15 years had there been no MM.
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 12:52:30 PM
The blood isn't on Biden's hands. Besides most homicides are committed by US citizens, but this is besides the point as homicides have declined. No one stated that homicides have ceased.
With regards to this football player and the lady, well, clearly the crime was reported, otherwise he wouldn't be convicted and sitting in prison.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 29, 2024 2:12:37 PM
Anon, you, of course, ignore my points---he committed a clear hate crime, admitted it on stand, yet not treated as one? And what's up with the minimum sentence?
Yes, the blood is on Biden's hands. Trump's border security measures were removed early in Biden's presidency.
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 2:24:22 PM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/2953562/bad-data-from-the-fbi-mislead-about-crime/#google_vignette
You see, this is the type of report you'll never see Doug discussing. Doug is aligned with the soft on crime people (after all, incarcerating bad guys is antithetical to freedom), and so any hint of things that would show that trogs like me are right are dismissed.
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 2:31:24 PM
I haven't ignored your points at all. I've cited that crime has declined in cities across the country, particularly homicide.
With regards to this "hate crime" it wasn't unreported. In fact, this case garnered headlines and even has a Wikipedia page. The Vanderbilt rape case stems from a 2013 incident and the suspect, Cory Batey, was convicted in 2016 and sentenced to 15 years in prison. The prosecutor didn't charge him with a hate crime based on their discretion. Besides, the sexual assault charge is a way more serious offense that carries more time. He'll be released in 2031. So much for a case being "unreported" 🙄.
Relax Federalist. Instead of posting about fantastical exaggerations about crime in urban areas you should take comfort in that crime is declining. I certainly do, as I can travel to various cities with little risk of being victimized.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 29, 2024 3:50:53 PM
A comment referenced the the homicide stats on AH Analytics, and here is the link which draws on police data from 276 US cities: https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-comparison/
As of this writing, that metric shows a nationwide homicide decline in 2024 in these cities of over 17%. I share the view that these data are something to celebrate, especially since they follow homicides declines in 2023 and 2022.
Posted by: Doug B | Jul 29, 2024 3:57:59 PM
Anon, it's hard to dispute that if the races were reversed (although whites raping blacks is pretty rare), then the hate crime angle would have been played up. The point is that the hate aspect was ignored, and if the hate aspect is going to be ignored in a crime as horrendous as that one, and thank god for MMs because that judge wasn't to be trusted, then what else is being ignored?
I am happy that murder rates are dropping, but there are far too many preventable ones, Laken Riley's being one of them.
Posted by: federalist | Jul 29, 2024 4:03:53 PM
Anon,
PD’s cook the books all the time to lower crime rates.
The mayor’s office and city councils are elected positions and crime is often the biggest local issue by far.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 29, 2024 4:32:32 PM
And as I’ve pointed out before, much of any fall in crime rates has to do with a lack of prosecution. The police often will not even show up for car break ins and shoplifting.
And now that the left is pro-terrorism, they drop charges on rioters (see Union Station when Bibi was in town.) Or, did the homeless person really shit on the sidewalk if he wasn’t arrested for it? If I had lit up a cigarette in a public arena over the last 30 years in NY I would have been arrested, but I go to a concert in Albany this past spring and there was more smoke from pot than pyro.
If you ignore it, no crime happened!
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 29, 2024 4:42:19 PM
You all keep talking about cooking the books, cook books, books being cooked, but provide no evidence.
Laken Riley's death is constantly referenced mainly due to the residential status of the suspect. Numerous homicides occur in Georgia, most of them preventable, yet conservatives keep referencing Laken Riley. Yes, her death is tragic, but there is nothing extraordinary about it.
If people report a break-in, the incident will be documented and cops will make at least a half-hearted effort to document it. Most property crimes go unsolved, but I think you misunderstand the meaning of reported and unsolved.
Spare me the hyperbole about the left supporting terrorism, the unhoused person you claim relieving himself, or the fact that marijuana is legal in NY and people were toking at a concert. It's quite common to smell cannabis at a music event especially if it's a rock concert.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 29, 2024 9:37:17 PM
Anon,
Laken Riley’s death was the most easily preventable. Keep people out of the country that don’t belong here.
It’s well documented that people are not reporting crimes and police not making arrests because there is no point to it. They get put right back out.
The left supporting terror is not hyperbole. Look at every “protest” since October 7. I’ve been to metal concerts all over for years. Smoking in indoor venues (including pot) died suddenly with all the anti-cigarette legislation. It’s only recently in states like NY where I’ve started seeing people not only smoke pot, but do so openly in front of security and police. NYC smells only of piss and pot these days.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 30, 2024 12:16:48 AM
Thousands of homicides are easily preventable if guns weren't easily accessible or if people with conflict resolved their issues via peacefully. I've stated before that U.S. citizens commit the overwhelming majority of homicides, and crimes in general, as opposed to undocumented folks. Of course, right wingers gleefully overlook those homicides and focus on this one case in Georgia.
"It's well documented that people are not reporting crimes and police are not making arrests because there is no point to it. They get put right back out." People are arrested and put in jail all across America. However, it's essential to remember that jail is a pre-trial detention and folks can bond out provided they have the means to do so. Cops don't stop arresting folks simply because people bond out. Otherwise, what's the point in law enforcement?
I've seen protests online and it's just scrawny college kids exercising their Constitutional right to protest genocide. They aren't committing any acts of violence, ala mass shootings or bombings. I've attended metal concerts as well and there was always one person smoking the leaf. Still, that's predictable and a non-issue in 2024.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 30, 2024 1:41:49 AM
Doug, look at the nastiness of Anon's commentary here. First, he is demonizing conservatives. Second, he is lumping in gun control (by the way, illegals aren't allowed to have guns) with the Administration's clear failures on enforcing the laws regarding illegal immigration. And yes, the left supports terrorism---leftists have coopted the "by any means necessary" to make "Palestine free from the river to the sea."
Posted by: federalist | Jul 30, 2024 10:11:37 AM
You have hit on one of the problems that you contribute to, federalist: when you make partisan and impolite and off-topic comments, they can often led to others making impolite, unproductive, off-topic and partisan responses. And such a back and forth in turn crowds out efforts by others to engage with more on-point and more productive discussions. Indeed, I have heard from many who say they do not want to engage in on-point comments because of the concern about an off-topic partisan response.
Posted by: Doug B | Jul 30, 2024 11:03:55 AM
Anon,
Of course citizens commit the majority of crime. We are still an overwhelming majority of the inhabitants.
“ Of course, right wingers gleefully overlook those homicides and focus on this one case in Georgia.”
Any examples of “right wingers gleefully overlook(ing) those homicides?” I’ll answer my own question. No. You made it up. In fact, we stand athwart the prison abolitionist movement and soft on crime leftism. Quite the opposite of your claim.
There is no “genocide” in Gaza. The left has disgustingly co-opted the word in support of, wait for it…terrorists.Nor did I say the rioters are committing terrorism (“mass shootings or bombings”). The rioters are supporting terrorism, as I said.
As is far left academia (I repeat myself), public defender unions, teacher unions, and Democrat politicians. We all know whom Palestine is intended to be free of. We also know why it is Israel rather than Syria, for example, that receives the left’s ire.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 30, 2024 11:28:51 AM
It appears that you have gone off topic. This post was about crime stats and declining crime rates. You've deviated towards discussing foreign policy and justifying the deaths of women and children. I enjoy lively discussion but it's vital that we stay on topic as my first grade teacher would say.
Posted by: Anon | Jul 30, 2024 12:53:33 PM
The great retreat. I knew this would happen with Doug’s charade. People make claims, get put into a corner, then suddenly, “It’s off topic!”
The reality is you know there is no one on the right “gleeful” of murder.
Your comment about justifying the deaths of women and children supports my premise. You support terrorists, including putting military instillations within or near civilians and using civilians as human shields. Both are against the Geneva Conventions. You are misusing the word “genocide” to justify your anti-Semitism and support for terrorists. It’s projection, as you wish for the genocide of Jews. “From the river to the see…”
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 30, 2024 3:26:53 PM
“Sea” of course. Lol
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 30, 2024 10:34:51 PM
Underreporting of crime only matters to crime rates if the rate of underreporting has significantly increased. There is no evidence that it has. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/sr_24-04-23_crime_5/
Posted by: Fuzzyone | Jul 31, 2024 2:20:37 PM
The evidence that immigration leads to higher crime rates is, at best, equivocal. https://www.factcheck.org/2018/06/is-illegal-immigration-linked-to-more-or-less-crime/
Posted by: Fuzzyone | Jul 31, 2024 2:52:05 PM
Fuzzyone,
Of course it does. Every crime that an illegal is not here to commit is one fewer.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Jul 31, 2024 3:51:16 PM
TarlsQtr, by that logic the solution to crime is universal sterilization. No people, no crime.
Posted by: Fuzzyone | Aug 1, 2024 9:53:03 AM
Fuzzy one,
US citizens have a right to have children. Foreigners have no right to live here.
We need to go back to a system of what benefit the immigrant can bring to the country. Will they contribute to the culture? Economically?
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Aug 1, 2024 9:34:16 PM
Back to a system that never existed. Certainly by Shtetl born greatgrandparents and my concentration camp survivor mother, who came as a refugee would not have qualified
Posted by: Fuzzyone | Aug 1, 2024 10:13:08 PM
There is a difference between refugee and economic migrants, as we see today.
But here is the point. When the waves of Italians, Poles, Irish, Chinese, etc., came to America, they essentially had to have a sponsor so they wouldn’t be on the dole. Many were tradesmen, but even general laborers were greatly needed to build railroads, skyscrapers, etc.
Today? We need a tiny fraction of that compared to the levels of illegal immigration. We should be bringing in doctors, tech workers, scientists, not more general labor.
The lowest rungs of the economic ladder have been filled by non citizens rather than being the “first jobs” our high school kids would take. This has hit the minority communities hardest.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Aug 4, 2024 8:34:59 PM
