« "Drug Policy, Drug War, and Disparate Sentencing" | Main | Yet another wild (and wildlife) animal crime leads to notable federal sentencing »
September 30, 2024
FBI reports extraordinary crime drop in the first half of 2024
This brief press release, titled "FBI Releases 2024 Quarterly Crime Report and Use-of-Force Data Update," reports on the FBI's latest data on crime. Here is how it starts:
On Monday, September 30, 2024, the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program released the Quarterly Uniform Crime Report (Q2), January-June 2024, and the National Use-of-Force Data Collection Update, June 2024, on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer (CDE) at https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov.
The Quarterly Uniform Crime Report (Q2), January-June 2024, provides a preliminary look at crime trends for January through June 2024 compared to January through June 2023. A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least three or more common months of data for January through June 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 10.3%. Murder decreased by 22.7%, rape decreased by 17.7%, robbery decreased by 13.6%, and aggravated assault decreased by 8.1%. Reported property crime also decreased by 13.1%.
In this new Substack posting, Jeff Asher explains why these data may be "overstating the trend by a healthy amount." He goes on:
That said, the second quarter report clearly points to the US crime trends in 2024 even taking the overstating declines into account. Murder is down at the fastest rate ever recorded, easily eclipsing 2023’s previous record decline. Violent crime is down a fair amount — 4 or 5 percent — and will likely be the lowest reported violent crime rate since 1969 considering that 2023’s violent crime rate was virtually tied with 2014 for that honor. And property crime is down a ton thanks to the massive decline in motor vehicle theft following several years of huge increases.
September 30, 2024 at 09:11 PM | Permalink
Comments
A post about this without even mentioning the NCVS showing a completely different picture is downright fraudulent.
Posted by: TarlsQtr | Oct 2, 2024 10:50:50 AM
https://www.crimeandconsequences.blog/?p=10767#more-10767
Posted by: federalist | Oct 8, 2024 10:13:49 AM
Broad crime data reporting has always been incomplete (eg, no drug crime data), as well as challenging and slow (eg, because of different metrics/local agencies, etc). That's one reason I tend to focus a lot on the homicide numbers, which are much harder (though not impossible) for police and politicians to fudge. Homicide data also tends to be tracked in real time more effectively, we have more reliable historical data, and they tend to be a leading indicators for many (but not all) other serious crimes.
Homicide data show that we had record-setting homicide increases in 2020 and record-setting homicide decreases in 2023 and now also in 2024. I have not seen any serious disputes about those data coming from the FBI and other sources. It seems COVID and George-Floyd-et al upheavals help account for the historic increase in the final year of the Trump Admin; it is far less clear what may account for the historic decreases in the final years of the Biden Admin.
Posted by: Doug B | Oct 8, 2024 10:22:22 AM
