US Sentencing Commission releases FY 2024 third quarter sentencing data

The US Sentencing Commission last week released on its website its latest quarterly data report, this one labelled "3rd Quarter Release, Preliminary Fiscal Year 2024 Data Through June 30, 2024."  These new data with the latest accounting of federal sentencing trends helps to further define the new normal in federal sentencing patterns.  As I have noted before, and as reflected in Figure 2, the quarters just prior to the COVID pandemic averaged roughly 20,000 federal sentencings per quarter; the "new normal" over the past year is roughly 15,000 and 16,000 total federal cases sentenced each quarter (and Figure 2 shows that declines in immigration sentencings accounts for the decrease in overall cases sentenced).

As I have also noted before, the other big COVID-era trend of historically large numbers of below-guideline variances has persisted for years now (as detailed in Figures 3 and 4). I continue to suspect this trend is mostly a facet of the different caseload and case mixes.  Interestingly, in the most recent two quarters, the official data show a small but notable uptick in the percentage of all federal sentences that are imposed "Within Guideline Range."  But it remains the case that a majority of federal sentences are being imposed outside the guideline range (for a wide array of reasons) than are being imposed inside the calculated range.

As I have also flagged before, the modern USSC's data on drug sentencing reflected in Figures 11 and 12 remains fascinating. These figures show, for the last three quarters, that over 46% of all federal drug sentencings involved methamphetamine and the average sentence for all those meth cases is well over eight years in prison.  Also notable is how few marijuana (2.7%) and crack cocaine (4.0%) cases are being sentenced in federal courts.  

As always, there are more big and small stories to mine from the latest USSC data.  But the relative consistency of the system, even with lots of notable recent reforms by the Commission and talk of more, is my consistent take away from these valuable data runs.